one more catch-up

Excellencies,

here comes the last part of my latest attempt to catch up with the events of the recent days. After this post I can leave the fast-forward mode and switch back to normal blogging speed with more substance in the entries. But first, the last catch-up:

Japan is planning a ballistic missile defense test in cooperation with the United States in mid-November, a Defense Ministry spokesperson said. He continued that the Japanese navy personnel aboard the newly upgraded destroyer Chokai will use an SM-3 missile to try to shoot down a dummy ballistic missile in space over the Pacific near Hawaii. A few days ago Japan succeeded in using a PAC-3 land-based anti-ballistic missile interceptor to intercept a dummy missile at White Sands, New Mexico.

Meanwhile the United States is looking to bolster its own PAC-3 capabilities. Early next year, the Missile Defense Agency plans to begin testing its new longer-range interceptor for the PAC-3. The Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is designed to double the range of today's PAC-3 interceptor. The new type is also supposed to engage targets at a higher altitude than it is possible today, projecting potential fallout from an intercept farther from forces on the ground or population centers. The MSE-producing company Lockheed Martin is currently also designing MSE variants for an air-launch boost-phase interceptor and a sea-based hit-to-kill terminal defense system.

USA Today has more on missile defense:

Congressional negotiators agreed Wednesday to allow some funding for construction next year on a site for missile defense interceptors in Poland but sharply reduced the Bush administration's request. […] The bill would cut the administration's 2009 funding request for the European project by almost $246 million out of $712 million. It would also cut the request for construction of the Polish site by $90 million out a total of about $133 million.

NTI reported earlier this week that the U.S. plans to tap deactivated Minuteman III missiles for tests:

The United States plans to use 50 decommissioned Minuteman III ICBMs in periodic tests aimed at lengthening the life of the remaining 450 nuclear-tipped weapons. […] The missiles would be modified and used in reliability tests that could extend the life of the operational missiles by 12 years, from 2018 to 2030.

The IAEA has shown documents and photographs suggesting that Iran secretly tried to modify a missile cone to carry a nuclear bomb, diplomats said. These are a new proof indicating that Iran tried to refit the long-distance Shahab-3 missile to carry a nuclear payload.

India’s progress in missile development is also worth dropping some lines: The Indian government has cleared the indigenous Agni-III ballistic missile for induction into the defense forces, Defense Ministry sources said. They continued that the production of the missile would begin at state-owned Bharat Dynamics. This deviates from DRDO statements made after the last test in May according to which said that two more tests would be required to prove the missile’s robustness.

It is reported further that Indian scientists are now developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,000 kilometers that is expected to be tested early next year. A couple of days ago India reported its progress in extending the range of its missiles by 40% which would boost the Agni-III to a range of roughly 5,000km. However, it can be expected that the Agni-V ICBM will be tested. This would confirm earlier announcements and also this article in The Hindu.

Turkey fostered its military ties with Russia. The country decided to buy 80 Kornet E (NATO designation: AT-14) laser-guided anti-tank missile systems in a $70 million deal that is Moscow's first arms sale to the NATO member in 11 years, according to a senior Russian defense industry source.

Another summary

Because the last week was quite busy, I will only summarize the events of the recent days.

Let’s start off with a brief follow-up of my latest post on the Prithvi-II test-launch on May 23. I referred to the domain-b comment on the confusion about the designation of the missile because of the range of 350km. The answer is quite simple: the three military branches have their own types of the Prithvi. The Air Force version of the Prithvi-II which was inducted in 2004 has a range of 250km. In 2006 the Army got its version, originally with the same range. The missile that was launched now was an Army version with an extended range of up to 350km and capable of carrying a payload of 1,000kg. A DRDO press note said the missile was launched with an improved ‘Aided Inertial Navigation’ and achieved single-digit accuracy reaching close to zero CEP (Circular Error Probable). Newstrack India writes that the Prithvi-III is apparently the naval version of the Prithvi-II missile having 350 km range with a payload of 500kg.

The Business Standard provides some additional information on the latest member of the Agni-family:

The missiles that will run on these technologies will only be announced after the technologies are perfected. Saraswat admits he is working on a 5,000-kilometre range Agni-5 missile, with multiple warheads (MIRVs) that can manoeuvre and send out decoys to confuse enemy anti-missile defences. But the DRDO, he says, will only announce that programme, and ask the government for funding, when all the technologies are in place.

It comes to no surprise that during the course of the last week there were also some news related to the European components of the U.S. missile shield: Vaclav Klaus, the Czech President seems to be weary of too many nice words and diplomacy to soothe Russian concerns. He rather became very bossy and told the Washington Post that the Czech government will make its own decision on the U.S. missile defense shield, based on the country's interests, not on how Russia feels about the matter.

One senior Polish official expressed his view that President George Bush's hopes of sealing agreement to site parts of the Pentagon's missile shield in central Europe before he leaves office are fading fast. He was quoted saying that “Bush promised us a package, but the US is not delivering”. The same official also indicated that Warsaw had decided to wait until a new U.S. administration is installed in January in the hope that would produce a better deal. Poland’s Defense Minister Bogdan Klich mentioned that the United States should grant Poland the same level of aid to modernize its armed forces as it does to other key allies if it wants to site part of its missile defense shield there. Mr. Klich had Pakistan and Egypt in mind. These countries receive major sums in military aid. According to Reuters, U.S. has granted Pakistan US$10 billion since 2001 and Egypt will receive some $200 million this year. Contrasting with these figures, U.S. President George W Bush recently asked Congress for only US$20 million to modernize Poland's armed forces.

Russia came up with its usual barking. Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky told reporters that Russia was thinking about "asymmetrical" steps if the United States deploys missile defense elements in Europe. During his visit to Beijing, President Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart Hu took issue with U.S. missile sites in the Czech Republic and Poland in a joint statement, saying such measures "do not support strategic balance and stability, and harm international efforts to control arms and the nonproliferation process." On the other hand, Moscow expressed its readiness to continue comprehensive consultations with the United States.

At the end two short pieces from the illegal arms trade: a Russian news agency says five men have been convicted of trying to illegally sell anti-aircraft missiles and related weaponry. U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley has announced that four countries in February last year prevented Syria from receiving equipment that could be used to test ballistic missile component. It seems that PSI works – sometimes.

Aftermath of the Agni-III test

On February 26 India tested its nuclear-capable Sagarika missile. As you might remember, the SLBM had to be fired from a submerged pontoon because currently India does not possess a submarine that is capable of launching these missiles. On Monday, more than two months after the test, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) said it had successfully acquired the technology to launch missiles from the ocean depths, becoming the world's fifth country to do so. It is not clear why this announcement was made now. Certainly shyness or humbleness are not the reasons. Directly after test, a Defense Ministry’s spokesperson had already confirmed the success. However, according to DRDO the performance of the missile system was "far higher" than the requirement specified by the navy. "It has already been accepted by the user and is presently under [production] for induction into the services.”

Buoyed by this success New Delhi pursues a very ambitious missile program. V.K. Saraswat, Chief Controller (R&D) of the DRDO was quoted recently confirming that “India will test indigenously built Agni [V] ballistic missile with a strike range of more than 5000 km in 2009.” Other sources refer to Avinash Chander, Project Director of Agni-III, who allegedly said that scientists were awaiting the government nod for carrying out the first test flight of a missile with 5000 km ranges which could be anytime by this year-end. The missile is expected to contain a third stage booster rocket powered by solid fuel propellant.

Once again the nomenclature: it seems India will leapfrog from the Agni-III to the Agni-V, which will be the 5,000+ km version. That means that Agni-III+ and Agni-IV were rather “working titles”. Unless I find any convincing sources that will indicate otherwise, I will from now on use this terminology and change the names accordingly to Agni-V.

Agni-I (SRBM)	700-800km	single stage
Agni-II (MRBM)	2,500km	two stages
Agni-III (IRBM)	3,500km	two stages
Agni-III SL (SLBM)	5,200-11,600km	three stages
Agni-V (IRBM/ICBM)	beyond 5,000km	three stages

India is not only working on the Agni family. The Hindu reported last Friday that DRDO is developing a hypersonic missile that could double up as a long-range cruise missile titled HSTDV (hypersonic technology demonstrator vehicle). The newspaper quotes Dr. Saraswat:

“The HSTDV project, through which we want to demonstrate the performance of a scram-jet engine at an altitude of 15 km to 20 km, is on. Under this project, we are developing a hypersonic vehicle that will be powered by a scram-jet engine. This is dual-use technology, which when developed, will have multiple civilian applications. It can be used for launching satellites at low cost. It will also be available for long-range cruise missiles of the future.”

Another project also picks up steam: Avinash Chander said that the Astra, India’s first beyond-visual range air-to-air missile, which could engage and destroy maneuvering aerial targets, was now under development.

Picture: Avinash Chander (centre), with his colleagues, displays a model of Agni-V ©The Hindu