Topol, Bulava and arts

Last week Russia conducted two missile tests and the results are mixed. On December 10, a Topol missile was launched without any problems from the Kapustin Yar site and hit the designated target in Sary-Shagan, Kazakhstan. Everything ran smoothly as we have seen it many times before. Things looked totally different the day before: On December 9, Russia test-launched a Bulava SLBM. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the test was a failure - like the one before, like the one before, like … - and said in a statement:

"It has been determined in analyzing the launch that the missile's first two stages performed as planned, but there was a technical malfunction at the next, the third, phase of the trajectory," the ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

Last week’s test has only been one of many failures. Here is a brief chronology of the Bulava test-launches which counts – according to RIA Novosti – seven failures out of the 13 tests:

1. 24.06.2004 - failure: solid-propelled engine exploded during the test
2. 23.09.2004 - success: a test of automated systems on board of Dmitry Donskoi nuclear involved the ejection of a full mockup of the Bulava missile from submerged position to a height of about 40 meters
3. 27.09.2005 - success: the missile flew for 14 minutes and covered a distance of 5,500 km. Warheads hit all designated targets at the testing grounds
4. 21.12.2005 - success: all targets at the Kura testing grounds after a launch from a submerged submarine
5. 07.09.2006 - failure: a glitch in the program caused the missile to deviate from the trajectory and fall into the sea before reaching the target
6. 25.10.2006 - failure: the missile deviated from the trajectory, self-destructed, and fell into the White Sea
7. 24.12.2006 - failure: malfunction of the third-stage engine 3-4 minutes into the flight caused the missile to self-destruct
8. 29.06.2007 - success: warheads hit targets at the Kura testing grounds after a launch from a submerged submarine
9. 18.09.2008 – success: Subsurface launch at 18:45, warheads hit target at 19:05
10. 28.11.2008 - success: a successful launch during the state-run technical tests
11. 23.12.2008 - failure: the missile self-destructed
12. 15.07.2009 - failure: the missile self-destructed during the separation of the first stage
13. 09.12.2009 - failure: a technical failure in the third stage engines rendered them unstable

But some analysts suggest that in reality the number of failures has been considerably greater: According to Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer, of the Bulava's 11 test launches, only one was entirely successful.

Against the background of these dire results RIA Novosti demands that “we must now assess the entire project's status and the implications of the latest abortive test on the future development of Russia's strategic nuclear forces.” Well, it seems that perceptions of the state of the Russian missile arsenal vary. Andrei Shvaichenko, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) said on December 8 that Russia will complete the development of advanced missile systems by 2016:

"The future missile group will consist of two components -- standby stationary missile systems with a high level of combat readiness and long-endurance missile systems. […] By the end of 2016, the missile systems with extended service life will account for no more than 20 percent of the total, while the share of new missile systems will be about 80 percent."

If one considers the performance of the Bulava one can call these plans very … naïve ambitious. Of course one realistic option would be to continue with the slow introduction of the new missiles and a rapid decline of old missiles. But I assume that this was not what commander Shvaichenko was bragging about. ..

On a final note: if Russia should drop out of the missile building business it might still go into arts. The failed missile test of Russia illuminated the Norwegian sky on Wednesday morning: The spiral even caused speculations about a UFO causing bluish-white sky to pop up. The NewScientist reported that it looked like a time-travelling vortex fit for Doctor Who.

For a better hypnotic effect take a look at this video.

another reading list

Hi everybody,

here is your today’s agenda:

• India test-fires BrahMos and admits that the test failed
• Fresh test of BrahMos missile within a month
• India plans to test a Prithvi missile
• India goes for 'urgent' purchase of anti-tank missiles
• India plans to use laser weapons in Ballistic Missile Defense
• India Plans Missile Defense Test
• India, U.S. Discuss Potential Missile Defense Sales but U.S. Denies Pursuing Indian Missile Defense Sales
• Czech politicians disagree on U.S. radar plans under Obama
• Poland Encourages Obama to Pursue European Missile Defenses
• Obama urged to boost priority of BMD development
• Ballistic missile threat growing in 21st century
• China rebuts global anti-missile system
• U.S. Navy flight tests new Raytheon SM-2 target detecting device
• Bulava tests should continue – Russian official
• Venezuela Aids Iranian Missile Sales to Syria
• United Arab Emirates to Buy PAC-3 System
• Nuclear War Concerns Spur UAE Missile Defenses
• Taiwan Would Continue Arms Buildup Despite Potential Chinese Missile Reduction

Sign of life

Hello everybody,

There is no need to order wreath and flowers, the Missile Monitor is by no means dead. I am back – kind of. I am still very busy with other projects so that the blogging will be rather light over the next weeks. Therefore I will continue with the reading-list-style. Sorry about that. So let‘s start with the first list, catching up from mid-December.

Russia:

· Russia hopes for deal on START-1, missile defense by 2010
· Bulava missile fails a 5th test
· Russia to hold more test launches of Bulava ICBM in 2009
· Russia to get 70 nuclear missiles in 3 years
· Topol-M ICBMs enter service with new missile regiment in Russia
· Russia to deploy new missile systems by 2020
· Russia deploys 2nd S-400 missile system
· Russia's S-400 air defense system may be world's best
· Russian S-300 deal with Iran 'on the go’
· Tehran Says It’s Getting Russian Missiles
· Russia denies sales of sophisticated missiles to Iran
· Russians deny selling S-300s to Iran; U.S. skeptical
· Russia says Iran weapons buys 'defensive'
· Israel urges Russia not to sell missiles to Iran
· Russia selling surface-to-air missiles to Libya, Syria

Missile Defense:

· Poland hopes for continuation of anti-missile project
· U.S. could review missile shield plans
· Russia hopes U.S. will review missile defense plans
· Moscow says offer to U.S. on joint radar use still stands
· Airborne Laser Blasts Off
· Belarus backs Russia's missile plan to counter U.S. shield
· Japanese missile defense system cleared despite test failure
· U.S. Promotes Middle Eastern Missile Shield
· UAE is to acquire advanced interceptor Patriot missiles
· Aiming high: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense
· U.S. to place Aegis missile defenses on several warships
· US missile defense system will be unable to destroy Russian nuclear potential
· Northrop Grumman begins testing 'cold-launch' system that makes kinetic energy interceptors mobile, global, flexible
· India 'eyes' U.S. missile defense system
· Pentagon denies missile defense sales talks with India

Other:

· India successfully test fires anti-tank missile
· Rockets are again at the heart of a Mideast war
· Poland to buy naval strike missile from
· China’s ‘missile reduction’ is fantasyChina's missile plans put U.S. naval power in a weaker spot

No time and too much on my plate

Ok, here comes the announced entry. I had a pretty tight schedule over the recent days due to some other projects which are still ongoing. So I am unfortunately not able to catch up in a due level of detail. Instead, I will just provide you today with a reading list:

Russia:
• Russia seeks new missiles due to U.S. shield plans
• Russian Military Says Sea-based Bulava Missile Tested Successfully (November 28)
• Russia starts production of Bulava missile
• Bulava SLBM problems teach lessons to Russia, U.S.
• Russia acted wisely in sticking with Bulava SLBM
• Russia to Test Bulava Missile Again This Month
• Putin says no need for Cuban, Venezuelan bases
• Russia, U.S. Plan Strategic Arms Talks

Missile Defense:
• Missile Defense: Putin says Obama will make concessions
• Russian defense chief reiterates concerns over U.S. missile shield
• Russia Against U.S. Missiles in Any European Anti-Missile Plans
• Russia to Spend $2 Billion More on Missile Shield Countermeasures, Other Defenses
• U.S. Fires Missile Defense Laser Through Aircraft Turret
• Abandoning Third-Site Missile Defenses Would Threaten Transatlantic Security
• US stages successful missile-defense test over Pacific and here (December 5)
• NATO Reaffirms Support for US Missile Shield
• Financial Crisis Might Delay U.S. Radar, Czech Foreign Minister Says

Other:
• Iran develops air-to-air missile
• South Korea Takes Delivery for Patriot Missiles from Germany
• Pakistan to acquire 100 air-to-surface missiles from Brazil
• India’s Shaurya only a variant of ballistic missile K-15

Unfortunately, this will already be my last post for this year. I will be out of town next week without any time for further posts. For that reason the blog will be put again to a pre-Christmas hiatus. I wish you all a Merry Christmas or whatever you may or may not celebrate and a Happy and Joyous New Year. Thank you for following the Missile Monitor this year. I hope to see you back in the next year.

back online

Dear reader, I am back online and once more I will try to catch up the recent events. However, it will only be some patchwork rather than adequate coverage. I will go into greater and appropriate detail in the subsequent postings of the new events.

Here comes the first part of the catch-up:

Let’s start off with the major news: yesterday Russia successfully tested its Bulava SLBM. The missile was fired by the Dmitry Donskoy nuclear submarine off the northwest coast of Russia. The Bulava missile, which has a range of 8,000 kilometers, was first tested successfully in December 2005. The subsequent tests were unsuccessful or only partially successful.

DPRK has constructed a 10-story missile tower and launch pad, located in Pongdong-ni, a Southwestern region of North Korea. This facility may make future missile tests more realistic by providing Kim Jong-il(l)’s country with the ability to actually test the missile engine while it's in the airframe. Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., an expert with Jane’s, believes North Korea wants to use the site to develop longer-range and more accurate ICBMs. North Korea tested the engine on a Taepodong-2 long-range missile at its new missile launch test site several months ago, a U.S. official said Tuesday while another official declined this.

The future of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, or JASSM, seemed in doubt last year due to various problems but now the missile program called back on track. A batch of the stealthy cruise missiles was delivered in July and a contract for an additional 111 awarded in June, the development team flew 16 flight tests in four days in February, and 14 of them were successful.

The U.S. military aborted an attempt Wednesday, September 17, to shoot down an incoming missile with two interceptors after the target malfunctioned shortly after launch off the Hawaiian island of Kauai. It was the first breakdown after five successful tests of the THAAD.

Another test on that day was more successful: as part of its endeavors to build a two-layer missile shield, Japan's Air Self-Defense Force successfully test-fired a PAC-3 missile and shot down a mock ballistic missile at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico in the United States. The second layer, the SM-3 interceptor system, was successfully tested in December involving a high-tech Aegis destroyer near Hawaii.

Let’s shift to our favorite missile defense system: the Czech Republic and the United States are set to sign an agreement on deploying US soldiers at the anti-missile radar today in London, an official from the Czech ministry of defense told AFP. This agreement completes an initial deal Prague and Washington signed in July to base a powerful radar system in the Czech Republic to support a battery of 10 interceptor missiles in neighboring Poland. The Czech parliament will give the two treaties a first reading in October, with a final reading expected to take place in December.

Stay tuned for the second part of the catch-up. Over and out!

Russia's reprisal options

There was no need to wait long until we get some “options” how Russia might react to the conclusion of the US-Polish agreement. RIA Novosti came up with an article by Yury Zaitsev, who is an academic adviser at the Russian Academy of Engineering Sciences. He writes that:

Russian missile defense systems will not be able to distinguish missile interceptors launched from Polish territory from ballistic missiles. Any launch of an interceptor will automatically result in retaliation, and not only at the interceptor deployment site.

This direct threat to Poland has to be seen in the light that Russia mentioned earlier that it could direct its missiles toward Poland in case it should decide to host the interceptor base.

Russia does not want to be dragged into another arms race, but it should not ignore the emerging threats. Its most obvious reply to the U.S. missile defense deployment would be equipping its Topol-M missiles with supersonic maneuverable warheads, using jammers, and reducing the boost phase of Russian missiles. It is also important to equip the armed forces with new MIRVed missiles.

Both ideas are not new. For some background information on the maneuverable warhead check the Missilethreat website. Russia is already working on MIRVed versions of the Topol-M, which are labeled RS-24. It is expected to complete the RS-24 flight tests program with the two launches scheduled for this year and, if the tests are successful, begin deployment of RS-24 in 2009.

Russia could also revive its program to develop global missiles, which could be put into near-Earth orbits and directed at enemy territory while bypassing missile defenses.

This is also a revamped idea: in the 1960’s the Soviet Union came up with the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS). After launch an ICBM would go into a low Earth orbit and would then de-orbit for an attack. The clear military benefits of this program were that the missile had no range limit and the orbital flight path would not reveal the target location. While the FOBS program did not constitute a breach of the Outer Space Treaty, the program was phased out in January 1983 in compliance with the SALT II agreement, which explicitly banned fractional orbital missiles. However, the Reagan Administration withdrew from SALT II in 1986 after accusing the Soviets of violating the pact. Therefore there are currently no international obligations that ban Russian from reanimating FOBS.

[Russia] could also deploy Iskanders, with a range of up to 500 km, there. Initially any missiles in Kaliningrad would be strictly non-nuclear, but they could be equipped with nuclear warheads when Poland hosts the interceptors.

The frequent readers of my blog know that this idea is around for a while. Considerations exist to not only deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad but also in Belarus. Back in November 2007 Minsk has announced that the missile brigade, which will be equipped with Iskanders, will be deployed in the Mogilev Region, which is near the Russian border. This would mean that the US-interceptor-base at Redizikowo Pomorskie would be out of range, namely roughly 860km away which significantly exceeds the range of 280km of the Iskander-E (export) version. Only an updated version of the Iskander could put the interceptor base into reach but this would at the same time constitute a breach of Russia’s MTCR obligations. Back in May 2007 Sergej Ivanov said in an interview after an R-500 missile test that Russia will definitely not infringe its international MTCR obligations but the extension of the Iskander missiles’ range for Russia’s own purposes is a different issue.



Yury Zaitsev came up with another recommendation for Moscow how to formulate the sought “adequate response”:

[…] reducing the number of strategic offensive arms enhances the role of missile defense systems [and] therefore, Russia should keep an adequate nuclear deterrent in the next few decades, which must become one of the most important military and political tasks.

This is no surprise either. The importance of the Russian nuclear forces was stressed quite often in the recent time. The START I treaty will expire on 5 December 2009 and the SORT-of Moscow Treaty only regulates the number of warheads deployed by 31 December 2012. This is also the day on which the treaty loses all force. From that day on Russia will not be obliged to limit its nuclear arsenal in the future unless any follow-up agreements will be concluded. However, the technical and financial means for a major nuclear weapon expansion are not given. As examples serve the slow pace of the deployment of Topol-M missiles and the numerous failed tests of the Bulava missile. One option, of course, would be MIRVing existing missiles, as already mentioned above.

These are of course all worst-case options but as things are now there is no reason to be overly optimistic that Russia and the United States will find a negotiated solution any time soon. Probably a severe plunge in the oil-price would help but this is equally unlikely to happen soon.


UPDATE: Now we could hear the first nuclear threats in the direction of Poland. General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, a staunch supporter of Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, pointed out that Russian doctrine permitted the use of nuclear weapons 'against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them.'

Russian missile tests

Russia's Strategic Missile Forces Commander Col. General Nikolai Solovtsov told RIA Novosti today that Russia plans to conduct nine ballistic missile tests in 2008. So far Pavel Podvig has no piece on this issue, but I am sure it will come. Maybe he has some additional insight about how these nine test launches will be divided up on the different missile types. They will certainly include Bulava tests. The Navy Commander said in early April that the SLBM tests will be completed in 2008.

From Russia with Love

I would like to refer you to three recent posts by Pavel Podvig on the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces. The first one is about the Topol-M deployment in 2008 in which Pavel writes that the number will reach 65 by the end of the year. A second post lays out the rocket launch plans for 2008. Russia plans to conduct 11 missile launches this year, including two tests of the “new” RS-24, before this ICBM will enter service in 2009. Lastly, he reports on his Russiansforces blog that the Russian Military-Industrial Commission decided to continue the Bulava project as there are no alternatives to it.

Some additional news on Russia: the Russian-Indian joint venture BrahMos Aerospace announced another success. On March 6 another test of the sea-based version of the BrahMos cruise missile was conducted off Andamans coast. It was the 15th successive successful launch of the missile, but the first one that was aimed against a ground target. All previous test-launches had solely proven the sea to sea attack capability.

United Press International comments:

As we have noted over the past two years, India continues to forge ahead with its ambitious program to become a major power with its own domestically produced
intercontinental ballistic missile and cruise missile capabilities. India is even pushing ahead with its own ballistic missile defense programs, without buying from the United States the quantity and quality of BMD technology that other democratic nations such as Japan, Taiwan and Israel have all embraced. […]

Having said that, the BrahMos offers a remarkable opportunity for India and the DRDO to break that pattern [of difficulties with the transition from prototype achievements to the steady, reliable production,] because it involves such close association with Russian heavy industry in a field where only the United States can contest Russia globally -- the production of many types of reliable military missiles.

Bulava test history

A small addendum to the Bulava test: Pavel Podvig posted on his site a handy table with the Bulava test history:

1	12/11/03	Success	Pop-up test of a mockup of the missile.
2	09/23/04	Success	Pop-up test.
3	09/27/05	Success(?)	First flight test. Launch from a surfaced submarine. Reports about failure of the third stage.
4	12/21/05	Success	First launch from a submerged submarine.
5	09/07/06	Failure	Launch from a submerged submarine. The first stage failed shortly after launch.
6	10/25/06	Failure	Launch from a submerged submarine. Failure of the first stage.
7	12/24/06	Failure	From a surfaced submarine. Problems with the third stage.
8	06/28/07	Success	Unconfirmed reports about problems with one of the warheads.
9	11/10/07	Failure	The first stage failed shortly after launch.

Another Bulava failure?

Pavel Podvig reports in his blog Russian strategic nuclear forces on another Bulava (SS-NX-30) test:

There is no official confirmaiton of this, but it appears that Russia conducted a test of the Bulava missile a few days ago. The missile reportedly failed shortly after launch. If this information is correct, then Bulava is back to the unlucky days of 2006, when it failed in three tests in a row - on September 7, 2006, October 25, 2006, and December 24, 2006. One fight test that was conducted after that, on June 28, 2007, was reported to be successful (although there were some doubts about that too).

A couple of days ago, I posted on Russian plans to conduct five launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles by the end of 2007. One of these launches was the test of a RS-18 (SS-19 Stiletto) on October 29. Russia furthermore specified the testing of three other missiles: a RS-12M (SS-25 Sickle), a missile interceptor and a heavy RS-20 (SS-18 Satan). Assuming that Pavel Podvig's information is correct, the Bulava test was the fifth test launch of the series that was not specified.

Contradictory information came up in an interview with the Russian Admiral Vladimir Masorin, who said in early August that Russia would hold two more test launches of the Bulava missile in 2007 and would complete tests in 2008.

Russia has already made the decision to start the serial production of the Bulava. In 2006 the former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stated: "We are fairly certain that the [Bulava] missile system, and a new submarine to be equipped with it, will be deployed by our navy in 2008". Given the lack of success of the test launches, it will be interesting to hear some comments of his successor on a deployment date.

© picture: GlobalSecurity.org