July 4, Scrabble, and whales

You know the story: excuse me for not writing for a long time. I hope I can make up for that with a brief post on our missile-madness poster child: DPRK.

North Korea will likely fire short- or mid-range missiles off its east coast from which it has banned shipping, a senior South Korean government official said last week. South Korean government sources were quoted saying that the Norks are expected fire Scuds with a range of up to 500 kilometers or ground-to-ship missiles with a 160-km range into the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

Another rumor says that Kim Jong-il intends to turn the test launch into a strange July 4 congratulation by firing a long-range missile towards Hawaii. Japan's defense ministry believes that North Korea might now be planning to launch a two-stage or three-stage Taepodong-2 missile towards the U.S. state. With a range of 4,000-6,500 kilometers the missile would fall into the ocean before reaching Hawaii, which is located more than 7,000 kilometers from the Korean peninsula. However, besides killing a few fish or disturbing a stray whale, this would send a strong signal that the DPRK is trying to intensify the intimidation tactics and that it is going to continue to up the stakes in the standoff. The vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff is quoted by the LA Times that the West Coast of the United States may be vulnerable to such an attack within three years. However, North Korea is unlikely to be able to develop a nuclear warhead by then.

With all the attention paid to Pyongyang, Russia reminded the world that it wants to have its share of the limelight. North Korea is unlikely to fire a missile rocket in the direction of Russia, but if it does, the anti-missile defense system would destroy the missile in seconds, Russia's General Staff of the Armed Forces said. Thank you for mentioning that. One has to admit, that the comment made by President Obama was equally helpful: “I do want to give assurances to the American people that the T’s are crossed and the I’s are dotted in terms of what might happen,” Obama said in an interview.

Defense Secretary Gates has joined Obama on the Scrabble front. He ordered the deployment of a ground-based, mobile missile intercept system and radar system to Hawaii. North Korea reached new levels of absurdity by criticizing the U.S. for positioning missile defense systems, calling the deployment part of a plot to attack the regime and saying it would bolster its nuclear arsenal in retaliation.

While Obama and Gates work on calligraphy and the alphabet, other U.S. officials are downplaying any imminent threat of a North Korean missile strike. The U.S. intelligence community does not believe North Korea intends to launch a long-range missile in the near future, a U.S. intelligence official told CNN.

If the launch will not occur on July 4, another option for the launch is July 8, because the 15th anniversary of the former North Korean president Kim Il-Sung's death will fall on this day. The test launch could officially be interpreted as a tribute of Commander Kim’s tribute to his grandfather. Soon we will know more…

Missile Test Calendar 2009

January
01/15 USA	SLAM ER (Standoff Land Attack Missle Expanded Response)
February
March
03/17 USA	THAAD Interceptor
03/19 Russia	ALCM
03/25 USA	PAC-3 - failure
03/29 India	BrahMos Block II
April
04/10 Russia	Topol, ICBM
04/05 DPRK	Taepodong-2, ICBM (?) - failure
04/07 Israel	Arrow 2
04/15 India	Prithvi-II, nuclear-capable SRBM
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Missile Test Calendar 2009

Dear readers,
I hope you had a nice Labor Day weekend (those of you who celebrated Labor Day on Friday). I laboriously tried cover up with the missing test launches and set up the announced Missile Test Calendar 2009 page. It certainly contains several gaps which I will hopefully be able to fill in the future. Any hints are highly appreciated.

Missile Test Calendar 2008

January
01/17 Israel	Jericho-3?, nuclear-capable IRBM
01/22 Russia	P-500 (SS-N-12) Bazalt, nuclear-capable cruise missile
01/25 Pakistan	Shaheen-1 (Hatf IV), nuclear-capable SRBM
February
02/01 Pakistan	Ghauri (Hatf V), nuclear capable MRBM
02/13 Pakistan	Ghaznavi (Hatf III), nuclear-capable SRBM
02/20 Iran	optimized S-200
02/26 India	Sagarika (K-15), nuclear-capable SLBM
March
03/05 India	sea-based BrahMos, cruise missile
03/23 India	Agni-I, nuclear capabale SRBM
03/28 DPRK	Three KN-02 SRBM tests
April
04/02 USA	Minuteman III, nuclear-capable ICBM
04/19 Pakistan	Shaheen-2 (Hatf VI), nuclear-capable MRBM
04/21 Pakistan	Shaheen-2 (Hatf VI), nuclear-capable MRBM
04/25 Norway	Naval Strike Missile (NSM), cruise missile
May
05/07 India	Agni-III, nuclear capable IRBM; two or three more tests before serial production
05/08 Pakistan	Ra'ad (Hatf VIII), nuclear capable ALCM
05/12 Bangladesh	C-802A, anti-ship missile
05/15 USA	NLOS-LS Precision Missile
05/22 USA	Minuteman III, nuclear-capable ICBM
05/23 India	Prithvi-II, SRBM
05/29 China	JL-2, nuclear-capable SLBM
05/30 DPRK	Three SRBM tests
June
06/04 USA	Upgraded PAC-3
06/04 UK	Principals Anti-Air Missile System
06/05 USA	AEGIS BMD
06/17 USA	Tomahawk Block IV, nuclear capable cruise missile
06/25 USA	THAAD Interceptor
July
07/06 Israel	Tamir Interceptor, Iron Dome
07/09 Iran	Shahab-3, Zelzal, Fateh
07/27 India	Nag, anti-tank guided missile
August
08/01 Russia	SLBM, probably R-29R
08/05 India	Nag, Anti-Tank Guided Missile
08/27 Russia	Topol, nuclear-capable ICBM
India	Astra, air-to-air missile
India	BMD interceptor test, exo-atmospheric
September
09/17 Japan	PAC-3 test at White Sands Missile Range
09/17 USA	THAAD
09/18 Russia	Bulava (SS-NX-30), nuclear-capable SLBM
October
10/07 DPRK	Short range missiles: KN-01, KN-02, Styx
10/11 Russia	R-29RM Sineva SLBM
10/12 Russia	R-29R SLBM (SS-N-18 Stingray) R-29RM SLBM (SS-N-23 Skiff) Topol, nuclear-capable ICBM
10/17 Russia	Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile systems (unconfirmed)
10/22 Russia	SS-19, nuclear-capable ICBM
November
December
Late 2008
Israel	Arrow-3, SAM
Israel	Iron Dome
India	Agni-V, ICBM
India	BrahMos, cruise missile, underwater launch
Russia	RS-24, nuclear-capable ICBM