Canvassing or breaktrough?

On Wednesday, May 20, Iran tested its new Sajil-2 MRBM. Teheran touts the missile to be an "advanced technology" missile capable of hitting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. If the assumptions are true that the Sajil-2 has a range of 2,000km, the missile would indeed easily bring these targets into range.

An unnamed U.S. government official said that the Sajil-2 is the longest-range solid-propellant missile Iran has launched so far, raising concerns about the sophistication of Tehran's missile program. Many analysts said the launch of the solid-fuel Sajil-2 was significant because such missiles are more accurate than liquid fuel missiles of similar range, such as Iran's Shahab-3. The Sajil-2 differs from the Sajil which was tested last in November 2008 because it "is equipped with a new navigation system as well as precise and sophisticated sensors," according to Iran's official news agency. U.S. missile tracking systems have confirmed the Sajil-2's precision and other advanced capabilities. Until now, the Americans and Israelis were confident that insurmountable technical difficulties prevented Iran's missile industry from achieving an accurate guidance system but this assumption was nullified by the Sajil-2 launch.

It seems that Iran got a little help from some friends: Israeli security analysts stated that the missile is similar to a model used by Pakistan, suggesting that Islamabad might be assisting Tehran in its weapons program.

However, Charles Vick, a senior technical analyst for GlobalSecurity.org, is "not all that impressed" by the test. "It's just another test that confirms they've got the system that was operational last summer.

The Time writes that Iran's missile test may have less to do with advancing its military capability than with getting a last word in on Monday's conversation between President Barack Obama and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Besides that it is also a form of canvassing of the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is on the election campaign trail.

Quite timely, the East-West Institute published a joint U.S.-Russian threat assessment on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Make sure to take a look at Martin Senn’s Arms Control Blog to get the content in a nutshell. At the same time, the Jerusalem Post came up with its own assessments how many missiles Iran has and will have in the near future: Iran is about to mass produce long-range missiles.

This of course has to be taken with a big grain of salt... like almost every piece of news from the Middle East.

Picture © AFG / Getty

It is time for another round-up of reading

First some articles concerning our good old European GMD base:
• U.S. eager to search dialogue with Russia on missile defense
• While some say that Russia offers Obama olive branch on missiles other media reports that Russia denies missile suspension. The Warsaw Business Journal brings it to the point: Conflicting rumors surround Kaliningrad missiles
• Russia says missile threat [to deploy its Iskander missiles] stands, only as response
• Czech minister hails freezing of Russian missile plans
• Poles, Czechs wary on Russia missile move, eye Obama
• Czech adamant on missile shield referendum
• Czech lawmakers postpone missile defense vote
• Rethinking U.S. missile defense: “Between 1985 and 2008, America has spent $116 billion on missile defense, with an additional $50 billion envisioned over the next six years”. Taken together, this incredibly big sum makes up more than one fourth of the U.S. package intended to bring up the economy back up to its feet. And it was spent for a project which is “an expensive insurance policy whose payoff remains doubtful”
• Missile shield could boost U.S.-Russia ties
• German Foreign Minister Steinmeier seeks U.S. missile defense shift

And here something on the itsy bitsy rest of the world:
• Iran says 'self-sufficient' in missile production
• Iran's slow but sure missile advance
• India rushes to buy anti-tank missiles
• Failed test and rocketing costs: Army says no to BrahMos missile
• Second phase of BrahMos missile program to be launched Feb 10
• India lags behind Pakistan in missiles (an Indian perspective)
• Pakistan surges well ahead of India in missile technology (from a Pakistani viewpoint)
• Russian space agency to support Bulava project
• Russia boosts targeting tech for Iskander missiles
• Russia wants new START and BMD bases scrapped
• DPRK space ambitions raise missile concerns, analyst warns
• DPRK set to test long-range missile as tension rises in region
• China will create a versatile missile force
• Missile Defense in Japan

No time and too much on my plate

Ok, here comes the announced entry. I had a pretty tight schedule over the recent days due to some other projects which are still ongoing. So I am unfortunately not able to catch up in a due level of detail. Instead, I will just provide you today with a reading list:

Russia:
• Russia seeks new missiles due to U.S. shield plans
• Russian Military Says Sea-based Bulava Missile Tested Successfully (November 28)
• Russia starts production of Bulava missile
• Bulava SLBM problems teach lessons to Russia, U.S.
• Russia acted wisely in sticking with Bulava SLBM
• Russia to Test Bulava Missile Again This Month
• Putin says no need for Cuban, Venezuelan bases
• Russia, U.S. Plan Strategic Arms Talks

Missile Defense:
• Missile Defense: Putin says Obama will make concessions
• Russian defense chief reiterates concerns over U.S. missile shield
• Russia Against U.S. Missiles in Any European Anti-Missile Plans
• Russia to Spend $2 Billion More on Missile Shield Countermeasures, Other Defenses
• U.S. Fires Missile Defense Laser Through Aircraft Turret
• Abandoning Third-Site Missile Defenses Would Threaten Transatlantic Security
• US stages successful missile-defense test over Pacific and here (December 5)
• NATO Reaffirms Support for US Missile Shield
• Financial Crisis Might Delay U.S. Radar, Czech Foreign Minister Says

Other:
• Iran develops air-to-air missile
• South Korea Takes Delivery for Patriot Missiles from Germany
• Pakistan to acquire 100 air-to-surface missiles from Brazil
• India’s Shaurya only a variant of ballistic missile K-15

Unfortunately, this will already be my last post for this year. I will be out of town next week without any time for further posts. For that reason the blog will be put again to a pre-Christmas hiatus. I wish you all a Merry Christmas or whatever you may or may not celebrate and a Happy and Joyous New Year. Thank you for following the Missile Monitor this year. I hope to see you back in the next year.

once more: tit for tat

India’s Agni-III test was a move to somewhat bridge the stark strategic imbalance with China in terms of nuclear and missile arsenals. However, Pakistan felt compelled to step out of the shadow and remind its eastern neighbor that it is also credible threat: it tested today its nuclear-capable Ra’ad (Hatf VIII) air-launched cruise missile. The launch of the ALCM, which has a range of 350 kilometers, was carried out at an undisclosed location, a Pakistani military said.

In the official statement no connection was made to India’s test on the day before: "The missile test is part of a continuing process of validating the design parameters of the weapon system." Usually India and Pakistan notify each other about upcoming test launches. It would be interesting to know if and -in the affirmative case - when India was notified about this alleged business-as-usual test.

Picture: © AFP

Pakistan tests Shaheen-2 (Hatf VI)

Pakistan conducted two tests of its Shaheen-2 (Hatf VI) missile on Saturday and Monday, respectively. The tests “validated the operational readiness of a strategic missile group equipped with [the] Shaheen II missile," the Pakistani military said in a statement. In other words: it is ready for wartime use.

The Shaheen-2 is Pakistan’s longest range ballistic missile with a range of over 2,000km. Even though Pakistan is proud of its missile, it is a bit overly ambitious in touting this missile to be a “long range ballistic missile”. Also other sources shoot frequently one category too high: the Ghauri (Hatf V) is labeled as IRBM, even though its maximum range is 1,300km. Likewise the SRBM Shaheen-1 (Hatf IV) with its 750km range is designated as MRBM.

India on Saturday did not give much credence to the test-firing of a ballistic missile by Pakistan saying such tests were regularly required as the technology was imported.

India successfully tests its first SLBM

India launched on February 26 a nuclear-capable SLBM off of its southeast coast near the port city of Visakhapatnam, which is home to the navy's Eastern Fleet. The test of the indigenously-developed SLBM with the designation Sagarika (K-15) was announced earlier this month. The nuclear-capable missile has a range of 700km and can carry a 500kg payload.

“This missile is a variant of the Dhanush and an advanced clone of Prithvi's naval version. The difference is that it can only be launched from a submarine,” a source at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) said.

The Sagarika is designed to be integrated with a nuclear-powered submarine that India is building and that is expected to be ready for sea trials by 2009. Since the Indian Navy does not have yet a submarine capable of firing an SLBM, the missile was launched from an underwater platform positioned 50 meters deep in the sea.

Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organization, the missile has at least twice been test-fired but without success as its trajectory deviated while in flight on both occasions. Other sources refer to six previous tests.

A defense ministry spokesperson said that “[t]he test was successful. We are waiting [for] further details.” Once the weapon is deployed, India would join the few other nations – namely United States, Russia, China, and France – capable of firing ballistic missiles from air, sea and land.

Soon after the test, Pakistan’s Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir warned that the test “is going to start a new arms race in the region”. So far Pakistan possesses in addition to its various land-based ballistic missiles the Babur cruise missile that can be fired from warships, submarines and fighter jets and the Ra'ad ALCM which was tested on August 25, 2007.

Outside View: Pakistan tests its IRBM

RIA Novosti’s commentator Pyotr Goncharov wrote a short piece on Pakistan’s recent missile test. Naturally, he puts the test into the perspective of the relationship with India. Goncharov comes to the conclusion that the country’s nuclear potential was a major deterrent in the past, but today it is no longer playing this role. This is in between exemplified by the US-Indian “nuclear romance”. The author hints that Pakistan may turn to Russia in order to get support in its relations with India.
You can read the full article here.

Another test-flight of the Tiger

Pakistan conducted mid December another test of its first cruise missile, the Hatf-VII Babur (Arabic 'tiger'). The missile is subsonic and nuclear-capable; it possesses “near stealth capabilities and is a low flying, terrain hugging missile with high maneuverability, pin point accuracy and radar avoidance features”.

It is always stressed that the Babur was indigenously developed. However, the Babur cruise missile holds many similarities to the Tomahawk land attack cruise missile, with the two being roughly the same size and shape and having a similar wing and engine intake design. However, in 1998 US-destroyers fired Tomahawk missiles at Taliban bases in Afghanistan. Six of these missiles mis-fired and landed in Pakistan. Rumors exist that Pakistan reverse-engineered these Tomahawk missiles and developed its own prototype. In contrast to that, India’s oppositional Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party claimed that the missile was produced in violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime because of allegations that China had transferred cruise missile technology to Pakistan.

The Babur entered serial production in October 2005. Pakistan conducted five missile tests so far:

· August 11, 2005: land-based transporter erector launcher
· March 21, 2006: second test of the original 500km range missile
· March 23, 2007: upgraded version, range extended to 700km
· July 26, 2007: upgraded version, launched from the torpedo tubes of an Agosta 90b submarine
· December 11, 2007: a surface-to-surface version was test-fired

Officials have announced, Pakistan is already working on a second, more advanced cruise missile, with a range of 1,000km.

Watch this short clip for some general information on the missile:



Some analysts complain that due to the Hatf-VII Babur, India feels compelled to match the cruise missile with a similar weapon type of its own, namely Nirbhay, which is expected to be first test-fired in 2009. Others do not see the threat of an accelerated arms race but perceive a momentum of stability. Pakistan’s President Musharraf was quoted: “[The Babur] will further improve the existing military balance in the region”. An arms race, in which the involved actors compete in introducing certain types of weapons faster than their opponents do, show a certain form of continuity, but definitely not stability.

To put the Babur into the context of the South Asian missile proliferation: Sharad Joshi from CNS published a series of four articles in WMDInsights on the intensifying competition between India and Pakistan in the development of increasingly advanced, nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles. See
· India's Missile Program: Diverging Trajectories, WMD Insights, February 2007,
· Pakistan's Missile Tests Highlight Growing South Asia Nuclear Arms Race, Despite New Confidence Building Measures, WMD Insights, April 2007,
· India Successfully Tests Agni-III: A Stepping Stone to an ICBM?, WMD Insights, May 2007, together with Peter Crail, and
· India and Pakistan Missile Race Surges On, WMD Insights, October 2007.