Tamir follow-up

This morning Haaretz published another article with additional information on the Tamir test. Yesterday's tests involved the launching of a number of Tamir missiles and engineers evaluated its capabilities, in terms of such variables as effective range, command and control from the ground, speed and maneuverability.

Defense sources estimate that by the end of 2008 Iron Dome will be ready to undergo a major test that will evaluate the system's ability to intercept a rocket. The test will include the launch of a rocket, which Tamir will try to intercept.

A crucial aspect of that test will be the ability of a radar system under development by Elta, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries, to identify, locate and track the incoming rocket, and guide Tamir to its target.

The recent developments of the Tamir made the developers confident that it will be possible to significantly increase the interceptor's speed. This would allow the interception of the rockets a short while after their launch which would increase the likeliness that the Iron Dome will also be effective against mortar. However, one problem remains: if DEBKAfile's information is correct, the Iron Dome needs 15 seconds to locate the incoming rocket and determine the flight path. Even with increased interceptor speed, mortars will already have hit their target before the Tamir will be launched. We will have to wait for the end of the year if Elta will be able to deal with the problem.

"Shield the skies from rocket attacks, now and tomorrow"

"Shield the skies from rocket attacks, now and tomorrow" - that is the slogan that is used to advertise the Iron Dome. The "now" is used vaguely because the latest test of this missile defense system experienced some delays. However, on this Sunday morning the test was conducted. Some commentators were all but modest and wrote that the system passed the test with flying colors. AFP writes that the Iron Dome will not only be able to intercept the military-grade Katyusha rockets used by Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and the cruder Qassam rockets favored by Hamas but that the system will also be effective against mortar fire which has a much smaller window of warning. It was previously believed the system would be ineffective against mortar attacks since mortar shells hit targets within 10 seconds. In contrast to that, Qassams can sometimes reach their target within 20 seconds.

According to a scheme prepared by the Israeli arms manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, who is under contract to produce the Iron Dome, the small kinetic missile interceptor called Tamir will be launched just one second after the rocket itself is fired.


This information stands in stark contrast to what DEBKAfile writes. According to their information the Iron Dome’s interceptor needs 15 seconds to locate, determine the flight path. The glossy Iron Dome two-page brochure is not as precise as the scheme:

The system uses a unique interceptor with a special warhead that detonates any target in the air within seconds.

The Iron Dome system is expected to be fully operational within a year. Meanwhile others already speculate how many missiles will be launched during a potential next war. Major General Ben Eliahu, who was the commander of the Israel Air Force from 1996 to 2000, estimates that in the next war, Syria and Iran might launch between 250 and 300 SRBMs / MRBMs at Israel (Shahab and Scud missiles) and another 5,000 short-range rockets (mainly from Lebanon). The Times specified this information by reporting that Iran has moved ballistic missiles into launch positions, with Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant among the possible targets.

In comparison with Israel’s war with Hezbollah in 2006, the predicted number of missiles is significantly higher. Two years ago Israel came under sustained attack; more than 4,000 Katyusha rockets were launched at northern Israel in 34 days, sending hundreds of thousands of residents fleeing south.

Iron Dome Delays

Israel scheduled to test-launch the Tamir interceptor as a part of the Iron Dome more than two weeks ago. Defense officials now acknowledged that the system has encountered an unexpected delay and that the launch was postponed until next month. The Jerusalem Post writes:

The launch test was cancelled at the last minute due to a technical malfunction at the test site in southern Israel, near the Ramon Air Force Base. The malfunction was not connected to the Iron Dome, officials said. The test had already been rescheduled several times, and officials said Tuesday it would not be conducted until the middle of July.

However, the officials are optimistic that the operational deadline of 2010 can be met – this stands in contrast to the perception of some skeptics who regard 2016 to be a more realistic timeline.

Upcoming tests in Israel

Israel was expected to launch the Tamir interceptor last week. The Tamir is designed to kill artillery shells and short-range rockets and to be part of the Iron Dome. However, so far I could not find a confirmation that the interceptor test was carried out. This is not the only delay:

Aside from its high cost - $100,000 compared with $60-80,000 for fabricating a primitive Qassam - some experts doubt whether the Iron Dome can be operational by its target date of 2010. They think 2016 is the more realistic timeline.

DEBKAfile underlines another weak point of the Tamir:

Furthermore, according to Western defense experts, the air speed of a Palestinian missile fired from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza is 200 meters per second; it covers the 1,800 meters from Beit Hanoun to the edge of Sderot in 9 seconds, whereas the Iron Dome’s interceptor needs 15 seconds to locate, determine the flight path; it could engage the incoming Qassam missile only 6 seconds after it explodes on target.

The Tamir is not the only missile that is scheduled to be tested. The Financial Express reports that a long-range surface to air missile (LRSAM), which is jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and India’s Defence Research and Development Laboratory, Hyderabad, is ready to go for launch test to Tel Aviv. Currently the missile parts are being delivered to Israel. Sources said the test is scheduled to take place in the end of June and early next month. A control and navigation test will follow later this year.