Missile defense race in the Persian Gulf

The United States shifted gears in its efforts to upgrade its current defenses against possible Iranian missile attacks in the Persian Gulf. General Petraeus said the United States was now keeping Aegis cruisers on patrol in the Persian Gulf at all times in order to shoot down medium-range Iranian missiles.

A second line of defense is formed by the deployment of antimissile systems in at least four Arab countries on the Arabian Peninsula, according to administration and military officials. The U.S. deployments include PAC-3 systems, which would be used against short-range missiles.

Military officials said that the countries that accepted the defense systems were Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. They said the Kuwaitis had agreed to take the defensive weapons to supplement older, less capable models it has had for years. Saudi Arabia and Israel have long had similar equipment of their own.

The cooperation does not stop at the delivry of missile defense hardware. Lieutenant General Mike Hostage, commander of US Air Force Central Command, stated recently that the U.S. would be sharing early-warning missile launch intelligence with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which is formed by the five abovementioned Arab countries: UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar.

Several reaons are being provided for the deployment of the anti-missile systems:

Firstly, the systems are intended to act as a buffer against potential Iranian retaliation to new economic penalties related to its atomic activities and as an answer to growing perceptions that Tehran is the region's ascendant military power.

The second stated goal is to prevent a nuclear arms race in the region. If the Arab states are reassured that they are protected from a potential Iranian aggression, they do not feel they have to go nuclear themselves.

Thirdly, the same argument but a different angle: The U.S. is furthermore trying to show Israel that there is no immediate need for military strikes against Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, according to administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

However, the build-up, which is touted by U.S. officals as a strictly defensive action, is a sword that cuts both ways. One can also take a different approach:

[Assuring Israel] and Gulf states Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia which host U.S. infantry, air and naval forces that they are invulnerable to retaliation after attacks on Iran is to increase the risk of unprovoked Israeli and U.S. assaults.

Yeah, yeah: if you have the shield, it is easier to use the sword…

Naturally, Teheran has – or pretends to have – a different viewpoint than the United States: "[Washington does not] want to see good and growing relations between Iran and its neighbors in the Persian Gulf and thus started a psychological war," Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, was quoted.

But do not expect to catch the competition napping. The Iranian ambassador in Moscow has meanwhile said that Russia has assured Iran that it still intends to deliver long-range S-300 air-defense missiles. A top Russian arms trade official recently signaled the delivery may go ahead in spite of strong Israeli and U.S. objections.

In short, we can see a situation that is only too familiar: the arms race is on and everybody has only peaceful thoughts.

February fools - no Iron Dome for Sderot

February started with bad news for the citizens of Sderot. The city is located near the border to the Gaza Strip and has suffered heavy rocket and mortar fire over the last nine years. Less than a month ago, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said the Iron Dome would have its first deployment on the Gaza front to defend the city such attacks. Well, we have another exaxmple of how quickly such political commitments expire. The Haaretz correspondent Amos Harel reported on February 3 that the Israel Defense Forces and the defense establishment decided to place the first Iron Dome battery, which will become operational in four to six months, in military storage in the south and not deploy it for the defense of Sderot and its neighboring communities. Even though it seems now certain, that Sderot will be left outside the dome, there seems to be some inconsistency in the leadership. Amos Gilad, Director of Policy and Political-Military Affairs at the Israeli Defense Ministry, said on Februar 5 that Israel's new anti-missile system will not be deployed on the front with Gaza as expected, but rather kept on the front with Lebanon to counter Hizbullah's attacks in case of conflict with its regional sponsor Iran. Hizbullah fired during the 2006 war some 4,000 rockets into northern Israel. Hizbullah is now believed to have an arsenal of some 40,000 rockets.

Some commentators claim that the Iron Dome was never meant to defend Sderot and the border communities but that this was only a pretext used to serve other interests:

The decision to develop Iron Dome appears to have been, from the start, an effort to keep the Rafael scientists employed and compensate the company for not benefiting from the research and development funding for the Arrow system, which is being developed by Israel Aerospace Industries.

If this is the case, the Iron Dome was a very costly occupational therapy: US$270m for the development and US$50m for each battery. Other sources come up wit NIS 50m for a battery, which equals roughly US$13.4m. It seems that dozens of batteries will be necessary to defend Sderot and the other communities bordering the Gaza Strip. Depending on the price of the batteries, the costs will sum up to at least US$300m or US$1bn, respectively. It is clear that Israel will not be able to invest such sums. However, there are also other constraints than just money: a defense offical said that there are currently only two batteries under construction. A far cry from the 20+ needed to protect the Gaza Strip area. Defense Minister Ehud Barak acknowledged this by saying on January 18:

"We can't sow the illusion that now that development has been successfully completed, tomorrow morning there already will be complete protection for the Gaza area or the north […] It will take years before we are equipped."

Update: Defense Ministry is working on allocating the funding to manufacture seven Iron Dome missile defense batteries over the next two years, defense officials said on January 18.

one step closer to the expensive Iron Dome

Israel successfully completed another series of tests of the Iron Dome, the first level of its multi-layered missile defense umbrella which is designed to intercept missiles and rockets at ranges between 4 and 77 kilometers. Two other tests took place earlier this year back in July and in March.

Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that the assessment within the Defense Ministry and military had been that the interceptor would explode 10 meters from the incoming missile. The Iron Dome is not solely a hit-to-kill system, but it can also engage short-range missiles and rockets using shrapnel, enabling it to stop or divert an incoming missile from a distance of three meters. However, there was no need to use these additional measures during the recent test-launch because it exceeded the expectations by far. The two missiles “met head on".

This system is to enter service in 2011, but could be rushed into service sooner. Other sources refer to Israeli Defense Forces sources and Rafael officials according to whom the Iron Dome is expected to be ready in about half a year.

Israel received the reward for this successful test in a jiffy: on December 21, US President Barack Obama has signed a defense spending bill that includes $202 million in funds for Israel's missile defense programs. Over at Asian Defence you can read:

The Arrow-3, a controversial program that initially faced push-back from US Pentagon officials, will now get $50m as opposed to the $37m originally requested by the administration. In addition, the short-range ballistic missile defense program will get $80m., with the balance for the existing long-range program. The total is some $25m more than was approved last year.

A total of US$ 225 million have been invested by Tel Aviv in the project so far. This amount of money is expected to be sufficient for a prototype, the construction of two batteries and the production of a limited number of interception missiles. A single battery is considered sufficient to protect the area of a medium-size city and its environs.

Israel will gladly accept the additional money. Defense officials admit that the cost of intercepting missiles with the system may be as much as $50,000 each.

Missle Defense Aftermath

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Saturday lashed out at critics of a new missile defense plan for Europe and insisted it was not a concession to Russia, as some charge. This is something that Senator John McCain, ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, accused the plan to be. Since when is making concessions a crime? Well, we already know for some time how McCain prefers to solve conflicts. Maybe he should take a conflict resolution class to learn that making concessions is neither a taboo nor a capital sin. Anyhow, I digress, let’s get back to business:

Concession or not, shortly after President Obama announced his decision to scrap plans to base the missile defense components in Poland and the Czech Republic, it was reported that Russia will abandon plans to deploy Iskander SRBMs in Kaliningrad. Luckily some people in Russia are not as narrow-minded as certain U.S. senators.

Two days before President Obama made his announcement rumors came up that Russia and the United States might cooperate on the Gabala Radar Station. While this idea has been under discussion for already some time and was only recycled, the rumor mill has also something new to offer. NTI’s Global Security Newswire reported on September 14:

Recent news reports have indicated that the Obama administration is considering Israel as one alternative location if it chooses not to pursue the planned deployment of missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic. Some U.S. systems might remain in Israel after the two nations conduct a joint missile defense exercise scheduled for October, the Jerusalem Post reported last week.

A senior U.S. State Department official hinted that reports of plans to deploy missile defenses in Israel might be incorrect. They might be incorrect? A strong refusal sounds differently.

Even though the original missile defense plans for Europe were scrapped, this does not mean Washington will limit itself to the Vandenberg Air Force Base and Fort Greely. Under Obama's new plan, the United States would initially deploy ships with missile interceptors and in a second phase would field land-based defense systems. To “tip the balance back just slightly towards the wonky”, make sure to read Joshua Pollacks post “Testing European Missile Defense” over at the Arms Control Wonk.

Picture © Reuters

Level three is not working

Israel Air Force Commander Major General Ido Nehushtan said earlier that the Arrow-3 system, the third layer of Israel’s missile defense shield, will be operational by 2014. The events of the recent days might cause the general to reconsider his statement.

Over the course of the last week, three attempts were made to conduct an intercept test of a mock Iranian Shahab missile with the Arrow-2 anti-missile system off the coast of California. On all three occasions the tests were aborted because of various malfunctions, Israeli defense officials said. The latest attempt was made yesterday, on July 23, but the test was called off after the launch attempt was hit by last-minute technical problems. A target had been released from a C-17 plane but communication glitches between the missile and the radar led U.S. defense officials to abort the test before an intercepting missile could be fired.

Naturally, officials try to play the failure down: malfunctions of systems still in their experimental stage were to be expected.

Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired general and weapons expert, said the interceptor wasn't fired because it is too expensive to use in a test that isn't expected to go according to plan. He said such glitches are common when developing new systems and he did not consider it a significant setback.

As a consequence of this failure, further tests of the system, planned for today and Monday, have also been postponed.

The Arrow project was spurred largely by the failure of the U.S. military's Patriot missiles to intercept Iraqi Scud rockets that struck Israel in the 1991 Gulf War. The program is half-funded by the United States.

Israels three levels of missile defense

The first level, the so-called Iron Dome, is expected to be able to intercept rockets with a range from four kilometers to 70 kilometers like the Kassam and Katyusha rockets fired from the Gaza Strip or from south Lebanon. Israel has successfully tested its anti-rocket level of the defense system. An official statement announced that the tests occurred around July 15 and destroyed an unspecified number of incoming rockets. The previous tests which were conducted at the end of March were equally successful. More tests are expected in the next few months before the defense system is deployed in southern Israel to counteract rockets fired by Palestinian militants based in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Israel Air Force Commander Major General Ido Nehushtan said that the system would be operational and deployed in 2010.

General Nehushtan also said that the second level of Israel’s missile defense system, the David’s Sling, would be operational within four years. David’s Sling is intended to intercept medium-range rockets.

The third and final level of the missile defense system, the Arrow 3 would be declared operational shortly afterwards. The Arrow-3 is an advanced version of the current long-range system in operation by the Israeli Air Force:

The Arrow-3 exoatmospheric interceptor includes a two stage interceptor based on hit-to-kill technology. Its compact design, outstanding maneuverability, and divert capability serve to enhance its effectiveness against all types of Theater Ballistic Missiles (TBMs) and warheads. The Arrow-3 also includes a state-of-the-art long range acquisition high resolution EO sensor and has a low life cycle cost (LCC).

While the Arrow-3 are still dreams of the future, Israel plans in coming days to launch an Arrow-2 missile interceptor off the California coast. The Israeli air force as of April had conducted 17 tests of the improved Arrow-2 system. The current exercise would be the first Arrow-2 test to target a mock enemy missile capable of traveling 1,000 km. The test launch will simulate the interception of Iranian ballistic missiles, including the Shahab-3 and the Sajil missiles, as well as more advanced missiles Iran has yet to finish developing.

Picture: Arrow test launch, © Israel Aerospace Industries

Canvassing or breaktrough?

On Wednesday, May 20, Iran tested its new Sajil-2 MRBM. Teheran touts the missile to be an "advanced technology" missile capable of hitting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. If the assumptions are true that the Sajil-2 has a range of 2,000km, the missile would indeed easily bring these targets into range.

An unnamed U.S. government official said that the Sajil-2 is the longest-range solid-propellant missile Iran has launched so far, raising concerns about the sophistication of Tehran's missile program. Many analysts said the launch of the solid-fuel Sajil-2 was significant because such missiles are more accurate than liquid fuel missiles of similar range, such as Iran's Shahab-3. The Sajil-2 differs from the Sajil which was tested last in November 2008 because it "is equipped with a new navigation system as well as precise and sophisticated sensors," according to Iran's official news agency. U.S. missile tracking systems have confirmed the Sajil-2's precision and other advanced capabilities. Until now, the Americans and Israelis were confident that insurmountable technical difficulties prevented Iran's missile industry from achieving an accurate guidance system but this assumption was nullified by the Sajil-2 launch.

It seems that Iran got a little help from some friends: Israeli security analysts stated that the missile is similar to a model used by Pakistan, suggesting that Islamabad might be assisting Tehran in its weapons program.

However, Charles Vick, a senior technical analyst for GlobalSecurity.org, is "not all that impressed" by the test. "It's just another test that confirms they've got the system that was operational last summer.

The Time writes that Iran's missile test may have less to do with advancing its military capability than with getting a last word in on Monday's conversation between President Barack Obama and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Besides that it is also a form of canvassing of the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is on the election campaign trail.

Quite timely, the East-West Institute published a joint U.S.-Russian threat assessment on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Make sure to take a look at Martin Senn’s Arms Control Blog to get the content in a nutshell. At the same time, the Jerusalem Post came up with its own assessments how many missiles Iran has and will have in the near future: Iran is about to mass produce long-range missiles.

This of course has to be taken with a big grain of salt... like almost every piece of news from the Middle East.

Picture © AFG / Getty

Developments in the Middle East

The United States deployed a X-band radar in the Negev desert in southern Israel at the end of September. With its range of 2,000km and its ability to target the warheads of long- or medium-range missiles in space the radar helps Israel to create a layered missile defense capability. Israel’s current Green Pine radar can track missiles within 800 to 1,000km. The new radar give Israel a vital extra 60-70 seconds to react if Iran fired a missile, Israeli military sources told the Time magazine. The X-band is operated by a permanent 120-strong US Army staff. The deployment is not welcomed unanimously. Time magazine reports that

One senior Israeli defense official said that while the U.S. radar would boost Israel’s defenses against potential Iranian air or missile attacks, the United States could also use it to spy on the sensitive military activities of its ally.

One top official complained: "It's a like a pair of golden handcuffs on Israel." Linked to the X-band radar are also Israeli plans to place two radar antennae near its Dimona nuclear reactor.

One “side-effect” of the radar is that it enables the U.S. to monitor aircraft in the skies over southern Russia.

Israel is not the only country in the Middle East that works on its (anti-) missile capabilities. Saudi Arabia has requested 250 AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles from the United States. In addition to that the Kingdom has also 84 Sidewinder captive air training missiles, 12 Sidewinder dummy air training missiles as well as containers and spare parts on its wishlist.

Turkey is another country that has accelerated its various missile projects. On September 25 the country's military procurement agency issued two separate tenders for the acquisition of low and medium altitude air defense missile systems, namely the Turkish Low Altitude Air Defense Missile System (T-LALADMIS) and the Turkish Medium Altitude Air Defense Missile System (T-MALADMIS). Turkey also plans to purchase up to 12 long-range air and missile defense systems (T-LORAMIDS) at a cost of $4 billion, a project for which US, Chinese and Israeli companies are competing. In order to fill gaps in its defense system, Turkey plans to acquire different types of missile systems: Russia's Rosoboronexport will provide Turkey with 80 Kornet-E medium-range anti-tank weapon systems (MRAWS) and 800 missiles, in a contract worth around $100 million. Turkey also intends to procure 107 US-built Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM).

Catch me if you can - part 2

The potpourri continues:

Russia is planning to install Iskander missiles in Syria and its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, in a response to United States missile interceptors in Poland and U.S.-Israeli military aid to Georgia, an Israeli news agency reported on Monday. Russia is furthermore reported to plan arming warships, submarines and long-range bombers in the Baltic and Middle East with nuclear warheads. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni spoke out against the deployment of Russian missiles on Syrian territory. Admitting that Russia has “its own interests” in the Middle East, Livni added however that “no one has an interest in destabilizing the region.”

Ukraine is ready to cooperate with West on missile defense after Russia abrogated of an agreement with Ukraine on early warning and space monitoring systems in February.

Israel and the US have agreed to deploy a high- powered, early-warning missile radar in Israel. The radar will be manned by US-personnel and will be linked to a US satellite-based alert network. The new system will more than double Israel's early- warning system to 2,000 kilometers.

A National Research Council blue-ribbon panel of defense experts is recommending development and testing of a conventional warhead for submarine-launched intercontinental Trident missiles to give the president an alternative to using nuclear weapons for a prompt strike anywhere in the world. The panel recognized that the launch of a conventional SLBM could not be distinguished from a nuclear one and suggested several ways to mitigate it, but in the end it concluded that the benefits outweighed the risks. Conventional SLBM were described as "attractive in the near term".

The disarmament spokesman of the German co-governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) Rolf Muetzenich said the signing of the American GMD deal in Warsaw will further heat up the arms race. He urged to step up efforts to promote disarmament and arms control, if the US missile shield were to become a fixed component of American security policy. "Otherwise this could lead to military threats which could even go beyond the Cold War," the lawmaker stressed.

Over at the Arms Control Wonk Joshua took up the discussion about the origin of the Iranian Ashura missile. Is it Iranian-made? Is China the source? And what about India?

For those of you who have time at their hands can find a 49-page report on “Sea-Based Ballistic Missile Defense - Background and Issues for Congress” (dated August 11) over at the OpenCRS site.

potpourri

The recent days have been quite busy here. This will not change before mid next week. Therefore I will provide you today only with a reading list instead of longer posts. Enjoy!

• Iran’s Fars New Agency Shahab-3 missile has a longer range than the reported 2,000km.
• The Iranian Photoshop skills missile developments made an impression on Republican presidential candidate John McCain who called for the United States to establish a missile defense shield in Europe to counter Iranian ambitions.
• The tentative deal that the United States and Poland have reached was not very long-lasting. Reuters reports that Poland rejected U.S. missile shield offer. ISN is more poignant: Rice misfires. However, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country could reach agreement with the United States within two weeks but indicated he would not compromise on tough conditions he has set for a deal.
• A few days after being snubbed by Poland, the United States and the Czech Republic signed a pact on Tuesday to build part of the U.S. missile defense shield southwest of Prague. While the treaty still awaits ratification by the parliament the position of the Czechs has not changed: 70 % of the Czech population are against building even “defensive” radar installations on their soil.
• It comes to no surprise that Russia announced that it will take appropriate steps over U.S. radar. The list of potential steps includes the withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. It continued with its usual conspiracy theories warning that the U.S. may station intermediary and shorter-range ballistic missiles in Poland under the guise of interceptors.
• The Cutting Edge reports that Greece quietly provided the Israeli Air Force pivotal assistance on S-300 ground-to-air radar systems.
• India is going to flight-test its indigenously built air-to-air Astra missile by the end of July or early August.

Tamir follow-up

This morning Haaretz published another article with additional information on the Tamir test. Yesterday's tests involved the launching of a number of Tamir missiles and engineers evaluated its capabilities, in terms of such variables as effective range, command and control from the ground, speed and maneuverability.

Defense sources estimate that by the end of 2008 Iron Dome will be ready to undergo a major test that will evaluate the system's ability to intercept a rocket. The test will include the launch of a rocket, which Tamir will try to intercept.

A crucial aspect of that test will be the ability of a radar system under development by Elta, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries, to identify, locate and track the incoming rocket, and guide Tamir to its target.

The recent developments of the Tamir made the developers confident that it will be possible to significantly increase the interceptor's speed. This would allow the interception of the rockets a short while after their launch which would increase the likeliness that the Iron Dome will also be effective against mortar. However, one problem remains: if DEBKAfile's information is correct, the Iron Dome needs 15 seconds to locate the incoming rocket and determine the flight path. Even with increased interceptor speed, mortars will already have hit their target before the Tamir will be launched. We will have to wait for the end of the year if Elta will be able to deal with the problem.

"Shield the skies from rocket attacks, now and tomorrow"

"Shield the skies from rocket attacks, now and tomorrow" - that is the slogan that is used to advertise the Iron Dome. The "now" is used vaguely because the latest test of this missile defense system experienced some delays. However, on this Sunday morning the test was conducted. Some commentators were all but modest and wrote that the system passed the test with flying colors. AFP writes that the Iron Dome will not only be able to intercept the military-grade Katyusha rockets used by Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and the cruder Qassam rockets favored by Hamas but that the system will also be effective against mortar fire which has a much smaller window of warning. It was previously believed the system would be ineffective against mortar attacks since mortar shells hit targets within 10 seconds. In contrast to that, Qassams can sometimes reach their target within 20 seconds.

According to a scheme prepared by the Israeli arms manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, who is under contract to produce the Iron Dome, the small kinetic missile interceptor called Tamir will be launched just one second after the rocket itself is fired.


This information stands in stark contrast to what DEBKAfile writes. According to their information the Iron Dome’s interceptor needs 15 seconds to locate, determine the flight path. The glossy Iron Dome two-page brochure is not as precise as the scheme:

The system uses a unique interceptor with a special warhead that detonates any target in the air within seconds.

The Iron Dome system is expected to be fully operational within a year. Meanwhile others already speculate how many missiles will be launched during a potential next war. Major General Ben Eliahu, who was the commander of the Israel Air Force from 1996 to 2000, estimates that in the next war, Syria and Iran might launch between 250 and 300 SRBMs / MRBMs at Israel (Shahab and Scud missiles) and another 5,000 short-range rockets (mainly from Lebanon). The Times specified this information by reporting that Iran has moved ballistic missiles into launch positions, with Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant among the possible targets.

In comparison with Israel’s war with Hezbollah in 2006, the predicted number of missiles is significantly higher. Two years ago Israel came under sustained attack; more than 4,000 Katyusha rockets were launched at northern Israel in 34 days, sending hundreds of thousands of residents fleeing south.

Iron Dome Delays

Israel scheduled to test-launch the Tamir interceptor as a part of the Iron Dome more than two weeks ago. Defense officials now acknowledged that the system has encountered an unexpected delay and that the launch was postponed until next month. The Jerusalem Post writes:

The launch test was cancelled at the last minute due to a technical malfunction at the test site in southern Israel, near the Ramon Air Force Base. The malfunction was not connected to the Iron Dome, officials said. The test had already been rescheduled several times, and officials said Tuesday it would not be conducted until the middle of July.

However, the officials are optimistic that the operational deadline of 2010 can be met – this stands in contrast to the perception of some skeptics who regard 2016 to be a more realistic timeline.

Upcoming tests in Israel

Israel was expected to launch the Tamir interceptor last week. The Tamir is designed to kill artillery shells and short-range rockets and to be part of the Iron Dome. However, so far I could not find a confirmation that the interceptor test was carried out. This is not the only delay:

Aside from its high cost - $100,000 compared with $60-80,000 for fabricating a primitive Qassam - some experts doubt whether the Iron Dome can be operational by its target date of 2010. They think 2016 is the more realistic timeline.

DEBKAfile underlines another weak point of the Tamir:

Furthermore, according to Western defense experts, the air speed of a Palestinian missile fired from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza is 200 meters per second; it covers the 1,800 meters from Beit Hanoun to the edge of Sderot in 9 seconds, whereas the Iron Dome’s interceptor needs 15 seconds to locate, determine the flight path; it could engage the incoming Qassam missile only 6 seconds after it explodes on target.

The Tamir is not the only missile that is scheduled to be tested. The Financial Express reports that a long-range surface to air missile (LRSAM), which is jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and India’s Defence Research and Development Laboratory, Hyderabad, is ready to go for launch test to Tel Aviv. Currently the missile parts are being delivered to Israel. Sources said the test is scheduled to take place in the end of June and early next month. A control and navigation test will follow later this year.

Iran and Syria sign missile pact - UPDATED

Some brief cross-posting: UPI wrote yesterday that Iran and Syria signed a missile pact.

Under the agreement, Syria's missile units would come under the new Iranian missile section and their operations would be fully coordinated with Tehran.
Iranian officers are to be attached to Syrian units, while Syrian officers are posted to the Iranian command.

This move is expected to have a major inlfuence on the missile balance in the region. According to military sources quoted by UPI, Iran's control of four hostile missile fronts would virtually neutralize the American and Israeli anti-missile defense systems in the region.

Update: The Jerusalem based open source military intelligence website DEBKAfile.com elaborates on this by quoting military experts according to which the Arrow and the Patriot missile interceptors of the United States and Israel could handle incoming missiles from one or maybe two directions – but not four. A third Arrow battery has repeatedly experienced holdups and its is also highly unlikely that the Iron Dome system will be ready for operational testing against short-range missiles in the next year or two.

Missile Defense potpourri

Today I have a brief overview over various missile defense news around the globe:

A large majority of Czechs oppose the U.S. plans to place parts of its missile defense system in their country, figures ranging from low 50s to 70 percent. Yet a recent poll finds that 67 percent of Czechs would accept the planned U.S. radar base on Czech soil if it became integrated into the NATO defense system.

Moving a bit north: the United States seem to be weary of the lack of progress concerning the interceptor base in Poland and the tough conditions set by the Prime Minister Tusk’s government. The most important conditions is that the United States significantly contribute financially to upgrading the Polish armed forces, especially the air defense. This condition - which according to some estimates could cost at least $10 billion to meet because it would involve equipping Poland with Patriot air-defense missiles - has become the single-most contentious issue in the negotiations. A senior U.S. official said last Wednesday that Washington was prepared to seek a different location for part of its planned antiballistic missile shield if the Polish government could not agree on the terms. This statement was commented by the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski who said that the government will not interfere if the U.S. should do so. I wonder what Sikorski had in mind how exactly Poland could interfere. Would Warsaw set up an interceptor base of its own – after rejecting the U.S. base – just as a sign of defiance?

It seems that deals with other partners can be easier negotiated: Washington appears set to offer Israel a forward-based X-band radar that could greatly boost Israeli defenses against enemy ballistic missiles while tying them directly into a growing U.S. missile shield. The system has been described by U.S. officials as capable of tracking an object the size of a baseball from about 2,900 miles away.

It would let Israel's Arrow missile defenses engage a Shahab-3 ballistic missile about halfway through what would be its 11-minute flight to Israel from Iran, or six times sooner than Israel's "Green Pine" radar is currently capable of doing.

The Strategypage elaborates further on the radar’s benefits writing that instead of being able to hit a missile warhead that is only about two minutes from hitting a target in Israel, the X-band radar would allow an incoming missile to be spotted and destroyed farther away and with greater certainty.

While the deployment of the radar would certainly significantly increase Israel’s defense capabilities, one thing is rather farfetched. Congressman Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican, said that:

This is the best thing to lower tensions between Israel and Iran" because Iran presumably would be less likely to attack under such circumstances.

BrahMos 1-0 Barak

India’s activity in the missile field justifies putting up another piece on the developments in the country: A. Sivathanu Pillai, who is in charge of the BrahMos program at DRDO, announced that the next two stages of the missile program would be completed by 2009.

Currently the involved companies work on a universal launch platform. Pillai said that it could be a platform supported by a submarine or it would have to be a portable platform, to be built, carried and submerged at a pre-determined location. The first test of a BrahMos launched from underwater is scheduled for later this year.

The air-to air version of the BrahMos is also in its finishing stages. Pillai confirmed the earlier announced timeframe for the testing of this type of the missile, which is expected to take place in 2009. Before this will happen, the weight of the booster engines still needs to be reduced.
These two stages will add to India’s ship-to-shore, ship-to-ship, land-to-ship and surface-to-surface versions of the multi-role missiles.

Let’s shift from the BrahMos to another missile: the Barak-8. In February the first test-launch of this surface-to-air missile, which is being developed jointly by Israel and India, was announced for 2009. The two countries started in 2006 the development of the supersonic, vertically launched Barak-8, or BarakNG (New Generation). Now the Indian government has put in cold storage this massive joint venture.

The Daily News & Analysis reports:

The Cabinet Committee on Security had cleared the [joint venture] on July 12, 2007, but sources have now indicated that the government is cautious about giving the final administrative clearance for this project. If cleared, this would be the biggest military [joint venture] of India with any other country.

The volume of the deal is Rs 10,000 crore, i.e. roughly US$ 2.47bn. This move came as the Indian Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrested arms agent Suresh Nanda and others. The CBI has accused Nanda of receiving almost US$ 100 million in kickbacks after a US$ 275 million deal to purchase earlier versions of the Barak was signed during the previous Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance regime in the year 2000.

NDTV has a short news clip on this issue. Watch it here.

It remains to be seen whether the ongoing investigations will cause a major delay of the introduction of this weapon system. India especially decided to buy the Barak after DRDO failed to develop the indigenous system Trishul. Now it seems that a quick mending is not always the ideal choice.

© picture: The Hindu

Two test announcements

Israel uses Arrow SAM for the upper layers of its multi-layered missile defense system. The original single stage Arrow missile was deployed in 1998. The first battery of the upgraded version, the Arrow-2, which is a two-stage missile, became operational in 2000. The Arrow-2 has a lower weight and an increased range (90 km) in comparison to its predecessor. For a detailed description of the Arrow-2 take a look at the Army Technology website.

Israel is also developing a third version of the missile to provide top-tier air defense. Arrow-3 will be an exo-atmospheric missile, capable of higher altitudes and greater ranges than Arrow-1 and Arrow-2, and be effective against intermediate range ballistic missiles.

According to flightglobal.com, Israel Aerospace Industries has now announced its plans to test the Arrow-3 for the first time in late 2008. Arieh Herzog, director of the MoD’s Israel Missile Defense Organization, estimated that it would take at least five years and “several hundred million dollars” for the first Arrow-3s to become operational.

The Arrow-3 test will be followed in 2009 by the first launch of the Barak-8 surface-to-air missile, which is being developed jointly by Israel and India and will have a range of 60km. The two countries started in 2006 the development of the supersonic, vertically launched Barak-8, or BarakNG (New Generation).

Defense-Update reports:

Barak 8 missile utilizes a fully active seeker, the missile is not dependent on the launcher for targeting and guidance, and can perform at much longer ranges, offering effective protection from aerial threats, manned, unmanned as well as guided weapons. Covering both low and high altitudes, the missile is designed for operation on-board ships as well as for terrestrial applications. Barak 8 system is designed to engage multiple targets simultaneously with deadly effectiveness. The missile uses vertical launched missile is designed to offer 360 degrees protection, utilizing an advanced active radar seeker. The missile is equipped with a two-way datalink, supporting mid-course updating and terminal updating and validation.

Yossi Weiss, general manager of IAI's Systems, Missiles and Space Group, said in mid-May 2007 the Barak-8 air defense system under development would be "more capable and more sophisticated" than the U.S.-developed Patriot PAC-3. Sources declined to provide projected program costs, but estimated the effort would take about four years and a minimum of US$300 million to develop unique system elements and an initial tranche of the land-based missiles.

Sources from both India and Israel say they expect the two countries to sign an add-on development contract by early this year for an advanced land-based version of the Barak-8 which will feature a range of 150 kilometers.

Israel tests a new (?) missile

On Thursday, January 17, Israel carried out a missile test. Initially, the official side was very reluctant to come up with information and the Defense Ministry only confirmed the launch but refused to provide details concerning the type of missile and the purpose it served.

Soon various rumors spread. Some sources assumed that the missile was an advanced Jericho-2. Iranian media even regarded the missile to be an advanced version of the Jericho-3. This perception was – in an unusual consent – shared by Israeli radio. Others referred to Western military experts which reported that the new system can propel the missile to any point on earth – thereby granting the new missile system an intercontinental capability. A similar statement was made by weapons expert Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired army general and Tel Aviv University professor who is now a member of the Israeli parliament, who said: "Everybody can do the math and understand that the significance is that we can reach with a rocket engine to every point in the world”. Defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the project, said that the new missile can reach "extremely long distances," without elaborating.

A statement made by a senior Defense Ministry official took one option off the table: contrary to some media reports, the test-firing was not linked to Israel's development of a multi-layered defense system, dubbed the "Iron Dome" and aimed at intercepting rockets and missiles.

Later on the Israeli Defense Ministry explained that the launch was a successful test of a new rocket propulsion system coupled with a test missile of a two-staged ballistic missile. Because the Jericho-3 is believed to have a three-stage solid propellant, the missile tested on Thursday must have been a different type than Jericho-3. The Jericho-2 missile is – in contrast to the Jericho-3 – a two-stage missile.

The Jericho-2 is commonly reported to have a maximum range of 1,500 km (some reports claim there are two separate missile systems, the Jericho-2 with a 800 km range and the Jericho-2B with an extended 1,500 km range). However, it is often mentioned that the missile is designed in a way that it could reach far greater distances, up to 3,500 or even 4,000 km.

This leads to the assumption, that the Jericho-2 missile has been upgraded with a more powerful propulsion system that pushes the maxim range of the missile from the 1,500 km closer to the limit given by its design. This would also explain the statement of the defense official, because if the range of a missile is more than doubled, one can indeed speak of an “extremely long distance” (in comparison to the former range). However, the statement by the member of the Knesset must still be seen as euphemistic. Even if Israel was now in possession of a missile with a range up to 4,000 km, the missile would still be well below that of an ICBM. Regardless of the question whether the new (version of the) missile deserves the label ICBM or not, if it has a range of over 3,000 km it is suited to hit any place in Iran. This might serve both as deterrence of potential Iranian attacks and as an option to launch a missile strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities (for an assessment of Israel’s capabilities to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities see: Osirak Redux).

David's Sling update

A brief update on David's Sling: In an earlier post I wrote that in May this year it was announced that the United States would provide $45 million for this project. Today’s NTI Newswire reports that U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday allocated additional $155 million for the development of the Israeli David’s Sling missile interceptor. This underlines the United States' strong interest build-up of defense capabilites against short-range missiles in the region. The system is expected to be operational within four years.