to-do list for the weekend

Dear reader,

once again, I can only supply you with a brief list of links to missile-related articles. As announced, this will be the last article for a while. I will be back online in April. It would be great to see you back then.

GMD

• Obama Likely Flexible on Missile Shield
• Poland, Czech Republic Worried by Obama's Intentions on Missile Defense
• Poland ready to conclude U.S. missile shield negotiations: FM
• No timetable exists for radar on Czech soil - U.S. source
• Biden hints at compromise with Russia on missile defense plan
• Obama's arms reduction idea a threat to missile defense in Europe?
• Missile shield plans delayed, but not discontinued?
• UK backs missile defense shield
• Russian missile plans depend on US
• Ballistic Missile Defense Efforts Tied to Iran, Gates Says
• Belarus says air defense pact with Russia not aimed at missile shield
• Iran denies claim its missiles can hit anywhere in world
• Iran, Russia, U.S.: the BMD link

Missile Defense

• Kinetic energy weapons may be best way to intercept missiles
• Kinetic Energy Interceptor shows promising flexibility
• Airborne Laser offers new era for ballistic missile defense
• NATO keen on missile shield in Europe
• South Korea to complete missile defense system by 2012
• South Korea May Join U.S. Missile Shield
• Geopolitical implications of missile defense
• Missile Defense in the Obama Budget
• India Working Towards LASER Based Missile Defense System
• US in talks with India for providing missile defence

DPRK

• North Korea Prepares Missile Near Launch Site
• South Korea says DPRK’s missile test would violate UN resolutions
• A look at DPRK's missile arsenal
• North Korea eyes disputed sea border for missiles-media

Miscellaneous

• U.S. urges Russia to consider missile offer
• U.S.-Russia: Missile Diplomacy
• Kissinger calls for missile cuts
• France transfers more anti-tank missile technology to India
• Russia and Iran's missiles
• Russia expands production of precision guided weapons, see also here
• Iran builds S-300-style anti-aircraft missile defense system
• Iran's Missiles: Don't Go Ballistic
• Black Market Missiles Still Common in Iraq
• Brahmos field testing today, February 20
• China can't stop India's missile system

It is time for another round-up of reading

First some articles concerning our good old European GMD base:
• U.S. eager to search dialogue with Russia on missile defense
• While some say that Russia offers Obama olive branch on missiles other media reports that Russia denies missile suspension. The Warsaw Business Journal brings it to the point: Conflicting rumors surround Kaliningrad missiles
• Russia says missile threat [to deploy its Iskander missiles] stands, only as response
• Czech minister hails freezing of Russian missile plans
• Poles, Czechs wary on Russia missile move, eye Obama
• Czech adamant on missile shield referendum
• Czech lawmakers postpone missile defense vote
• Rethinking U.S. missile defense: “Between 1985 and 2008, America has spent $116 billion on missile defense, with an additional $50 billion envisioned over the next six years”. Taken together, this incredibly big sum makes up more than one fourth of the U.S. package intended to bring up the economy back up to its feet. And it was spent for a project which is “an expensive insurance policy whose payoff remains doubtful”
• Missile shield could boost U.S.-Russia ties
• German Foreign Minister Steinmeier seeks U.S. missile defense shift

And here something on the itsy bitsy rest of the world:
• Iran says 'self-sufficient' in missile production
• Iran's slow but sure missile advance
• India rushes to buy anti-tank missiles
• Failed test and rocketing costs: Army says no to BrahMos missile
• Second phase of BrahMos missile program to be launched Feb 10
• India lags behind Pakistan in missiles (an Indian perspective)
• Pakistan surges well ahead of India in missile technology (from a Pakistani viewpoint)
• Russian space agency to support Bulava project
• Russia boosts targeting tech for Iskander missiles
• Russia wants new START and BMD bases scrapped
• DPRK space ambitions raise missile concerns, analyst warns
• DPRK set to test long-range missile as tension rises in region
• China will create a versatile missile force
• Missile Defense in Japan

another reading list

Hi everybody,

here is your today’s agenda:

• India test-fires BrahMos and admits that the test failed
• Fresh test of BrahMos missile within a month
• India plans to test a Prithvi missile
• India goes for 'urgent' purchase of anti-tank missiles
• India plans to use laser weapons in Ballistic Missile Defense
• India Plans Missile Defense Test
• India, U.S. Discuss Potential Missile Defense Sales but U.S. Denies Pursuing Indian Missile Defense Sales
• Czech politicians disagree on U.S. radar plans under Obama
• Poland Encourages Obama to Pursue European Missile Defenses
• Obama urged to boost priority of BMD development
• Ballistic missile threat growing in 21st century
• China rebuts global anti-missile system
• U.S. Navy flight tests new Raytheon SM-2 target detecting device
• Bulava tests should continue – Russian official
• Venezuela Aids Iranian Missile Sales to Syria
• United Arab Emirates to Buy PAC-3 System
• Nuclear War Concerns Spur UAE Missile Defenses
• Taiwan Would Continue Arms Buildup Despite Potential Chinese Missile Reduction

Sign of life

Hello everybody,

There is no need to order wreath and flowers, the Missile Monitor is by no means dead. I am back – kind of. I am still very busy with other projects so that the blogging will be rather light over the next weeks. Therefore I will continue with the reading-list-style. Sorry about that. So let‘s start with the first list, catching up from mid-December.

Russia:

· Russia hopes for deal on START-1, missile defense by 2010
· Bulava missile fails a 5th test
· Russia to hold more test launches of Bulava ICBM in 2009
· Russia to get 70 nuclear missiles in 3 years
· Topol-M ICBMs enter service with new missile regiment in Russia
· Russia to deploy new missile systems by 2020
· Russia deploys 2nd S-400 missile system
· Russia's S-400 air defense system may be world's best
· Russian S-300 deal with Iran 'on the go’
· Tehran Says It’s Getting Russian Missiles
· Russia denies sales of sophisticated missiles to Iran
· Russians deny selling S-300s to Iran; U.S. skeptical
· Russia says Iran weapons buys 'defensive'
· Israel urges Russia not to sell missiles to Iran
· Russia selling surface-to-air missiles to Libya, Syria

Missile Defense:

· Poland hopes for continuation of anti-missile project
· U.S. could review missile shield plans
· Russia hopes U.S. will review missile defense plans
· Moscow says offer to U.S. on joint radar use still stands
· Airborne Laser Blasts Off
· Belarus backs Russia's missile plan to counter U.S. shield
· Japanese missile defense system cleared despite test failure
· U.S. Promotes Middle Eastern Missile Shield
· UAE is to acquire advanced interceptor Patriot missiles
· Aiming high: Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense
· U.S. to place Aegis missile defenses on several warships
· US missile defense system will be unable to destroy Russian nuclear potential
· Northrop Grumman begins testing 'cold-launch' system that makes kinetic energy interceptors mobile, global, flexible
· India 'eyes' U.S. missile defense system
· Pentagon denies missile defense sales talks with India

Other:

· India successfully test fires anti-tank missile
· Rockets are again at the heart of a Mideast war
· Poland to buy naval strike missile from
· China’s ‘missile reduction’ is fantasyChina's missile plans put U.S. naval power in a weaker spot

The Asterixian wars

It is great to see that not only cartoons depict reality, sometimes it is also the other way round: I just felt reminded of the "Asterixian Wars". At the end of ‘Asterix and the Goths’ all clans of the Goths are allied with each other in various opaque configurations and they also fight each other. It is a huge mess and nobody knows who started it.

One can get a similar impression from the current debate about the use or nonsense of the current missile deployments and defense systems by reading the headlines of the recent days. NATO is concerned over Russia’s missile plan to station Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. Russia picks up this ‘blame your eastern neighbor’-game: Lavrov expressed his worries over Asian missile programs. One of his addressees – China – strikes back by announcing that global missile defense systems do not aid world stability. Moscow takes the same line by calling the alleged Iranian missile threat a ‘fairy tale’. At the same time Russia made the tremendously generous offer that it would not rush to deploy its tactical missiles near the Polish border if Washington scrapped plans to station a missile shield in east Europe (oddly enough Reuters speaks of ’a softer stand’). It should come to no surprise that the U.S. rejected these proposals. A MDA spokesperson counters that the Russians know that the missile shield is no threat.
So who was blamed by whom and why? Let’s hope this mess finds a different end that that in the Asterix cartoon.

Sorry for the long pause. I will write again on Tuesday.

Outer space-y missile defense

Earlier this month the U.S. Sate Department’s International Security Advisory Board issued a report titled “China’s Strategic Modernization”. The report finds that "the United States will need to pursue new missile defense capabilities, including taking full advantage of space," to avoid an "emerging creep" by China toward strategic nuclear coercion, the report said. Read this Washington Post article for further information.

The report's phrase “full advantage of space” is opaque enough to be interpreted in both ways, either to cover only a militarization of space or also a weaponization. The Congress already gave an indication of its interpretation of the report’s finding: it voted recently to approve $5 million for a study of space-based missile defenses, the first time the development of space weapons will be considered since similar work was canceled in the 1990s.

Catch me if you can - part 2

The potpourri continues:

Russia is planning to install Iskander missiles in Syria and its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, in a response to United States missile interceptors in Poland and U.S.-Israeli military aid to Georgia, an Israeli news agency reported on Monday. Russia is furthermore reported to plan arming warships, submarines and long-range bombers in the Baltic and Middle East with nuclear warheads. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni spoke out against the deployment of Russian missiles on Syrian territory. Admitting that Russia has “its own interests” in the Middle East, Livni added however that “no one has an interest in destabilizing the region.”

Ukraine is ready to cooperate with West on missile defense after Russia abrogated of an agreement with Ukraine on early warning and space monitoring systems in February.

Israel and the US have agreed to deploy a high- powered, early-warning missile radar in Israel. The radar will be manned by US-personnel and will be linked to a US satellite-based alert network. The new system will more than double Israel's early- warning system to 2,000 kilometers.

A National Research Council blue-ribbon panel of defense experts is recommending development and testing of a conventional warhead for submarine-launched intercontinental Trident missiles to give the president an alternative to using nuclear weapons for a prompt strike anywhere in the world. The panel recognized that the launch of a conventional SLBM could not be distinguished from a nuclear one and suggested several ways to mitigate it, but in the end it concluded that the benefits outweighed the risks. Conventional SLBM were described as "attractive in the near term".

The disarmament spokesman of the German co-governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) Rolf Muetzenich said the signing of the American GMD deal in Warsaw will further heat up the arms race. He urged to step up efforts to promote disarmament and arms control, if the US missile shield were to become a fixed component of American security policy. "Otherwise this could lead to military threats which could even go beyond the Cold War," the lawmaker stressed.

Over at the Arms Control Wonk Joshua took up the discussion about the origin of the Iranian Ashura missile. Is it Iranian-made? Is China the source? And what about India?

For those of you who have time at their hands can find a 49-page report on “Sea-Based Ballistic Missile Defense - Background and Issues for Congress” (dated August 11) over at the OpenCRS site.

Catch me if you can

Once again I have to catch up with the events of the recent days. So let’s start with India, which is again BrahMos-dominated:

The Indian army has ordered an additional batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles from the Russian-Indian BrahMos Aerospace joint venture, the company's CEO said without disclosing the exact size of the order. However, it was announced that the order was worth US$2 billion. A senior defense official in India, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the deal was part of a long-term agreement between BrahMos and the Indian military. With this order the total order book for the BrahMos, including supplies to other countries, could reach $10 billion.

UPI Asia Online has an article about India boosting its air force at the Indo-Chinese border. Within the next four months, a first batch of eight Su-30MKI multi-role fighters will be positioned at the Tezpur Airp Base in the Indian state of Assam. India plans to outfit the fighters with the latest BrahMos air-to-ground supersonic missiles. The serial production of these cruise missiles is planned to start after the completion of field trials next year, a top official here said.

Indian promotional materials indicate guidance improvements to the BrahMos over the original design.

China makes a Big Wave

I just read on the Russian Navy Blog that China tested on May 29 its newest SLBM. While the author refers to the missile as Tszyuylan-2 (Big Wave), I assume that it is the JL-2, the Ju Lang-2 (Giant Wave).

The former Russian Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Viktor Kravchenko comments:

“In the last few years, China has added to the experience and has amassed enough economic potential to accelerate the development of the maritime component of its nuclear forces”.

According to Japanese sources Project 094 submarines will be equipped with this missile that has an intercontinental range of flight and will thus be able to hit targets in Europe and the US from its pier. Russian TV Zvezda describes the missile to have a range of 8,000 km. This also supports the assumption that it was a JL-2 that has been tested.

DPRK's missile test

Last Friday, on May 30, North Korea conducted three missile tests. According to a military source, the missiles were either the same type as the Soviet-made Styx surface-to-surface missile with a 40 kilometer-range launched in March or short-range missiles of a similar sort. Other sources identify the missiles as ship-to-ship missiles and to be of a variety of a former type made by the Soviet Union. Reportedly two of the three missiles have misfired.

It is assumed that the launches were part of a routine training and were not intended to provoke the south, since the missiles were fired well away from contested wasters off the western coast.

An ease of tension can also be observed a bit westward at the Taiwan Strait. Chinese leaders told Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party they would reduce the number of missiles aimed at the self-ruled island it sees as its own, a party official said on Monday in another sign of détente. China did not set a timeline or estimate how many of its about 1,300 cruise missiles and SRBMs might be removed.

Picture © Alaskareport.com

Cross-blogging: Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Area Discovered in Central China

Hans Kristensen, author of the FAS Strategic Security Blog, has an excellent piece on Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Area Discovered in Central China. It should be on your reading list for today.

Ain't no sunshine...

For all of those that still needed another proof that the sunshine policy is a relic of the past, here it comes: last Friday AFP reported that South Korea has decided to buy hundreds of cruise missiles. The ACLMs are intended to be fitted on 21 new F-15 fighter jets Seoul has agreed to buy from Boeing between 2010 and 2012. So far no decision about the type of missile and supplier has been made but reports indicated that some 400 Lockheed-Martin Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, or other missiles of similar capacity which have a range of 400 km, would be purchased. They would enable Seoul to strike targets such as North Korea's nuclear sites and command posts.

The response from the northern neighbor came immediately: DPRK’s official news agency KCNA denounced South Korea's decision to buy the missiles as proof for its "preemptive attack" against the DPRK. It called the ROK’s behavior an "intolerable treacherous act of pushing the situation on the Korean Peninsula to a dangerous phase of war and wrecking peace."

It comes to no surprise that the two Koreas are not the only actors in the region that are involved in an arms build-up. Make sure to read the highly informative article by Andrei Chang on the four battalions of 200-kilometer-range S-300PMU2 surface-to-air missiles that will Russia deliver this summer to China. The author gives a detailed overview over the Chinese SAM positions.