Agni resources

I just came across the Agni page of the Bharat Rakshak, the Consortium of Indian Military Websites. I contains a wealth of information. In between they have handy graphics like the one below.


In mid-February another test of the Agni-III was announced. The test is scheduled to "be conducted as soon as the weather clears up". This has not been the case so far.

ICBM history lesson

United Press International published last week a short article on the history of the Soviet RT-23 (SS-24 Scapel) rail-based missile system (part 1, part 2). A nice primer.

The author first provides some background information on the RT-23 before he turns to the decision to scrap the missiles. He raises concerns about the favoring of an extension of the service life of the SS-18 Satan and the SS-19 Stiletto and the production of the Topol-M over keeping the RT-23.

He concludes wistfully, that the RT-23 has at least a better fate than that of the Buran multiple-use booster, which has been turned into an entertainment and restaurant complex: Russia's last rail missile system stands in the central museum of the Oktyabrskaya Railway at St. Petersburg's Warsaw Terminal.

Cross-blogging: Highlights of House Hearing on Missile Defense

Jeff Lindemeyer wrote earlier this week on the highlights of House Hearing on Missile Defense. The meeting was held on March 5 and the consensus opinion of the witnesses was that:

• The ballistic missile threat has been wildly inflated.
• The U.S. is far more likely to be attacked with WMD transferred via non-missile means such as a dirty bomb than by ICBMs.
• The opportunity costs of spending roughly $10 billion a year on missile defense are enormous.
• The Missile Defense Agency should not be exempted from normal acquisition, testing and reporting requirements.
• The United States needs a comprehensive assessment of the threat posed by ballistic missiles in relation to other threats, such as threats to the homeland transferred via non-missile means.

Lord of War

Today only some cross-blogging: Matt Schroder postet at the FAS Strategic Security Blog a piece on Victor Bout's proliferation activities. During the sting operation he offered the presumably FARC representatives 100 Igla anti-aircraft missiles and that were supposedly “available immediately” to him. Read the full article here.

From Russia with Love

I would like to refer you to three recent posts by Pavel Podvig on the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces. The first one is about the Topol-M deployment in 2008 in which Pavel writes that the number will reach 65 by the end of the year. A second post lays out the rocket launch plans for 2008. Russia plans to conduct 11 missile launches this year, including two tests of the “new” RS-24, before this ICBM will enter service in 2009. Lastly, he reports on his Russiansforces blog that the Russian Military-Industrial Commission decided to continue the Bulava project as there are no alternatives to it.

Some additional news on Russia: the Russian-Indian joint venture BrahMos Aerospace announced another success. On March 6 another test of the sea-based version of the BrahMos cruise missile was conducted off Andamans coast. It was the 15th successive successful launch of the missile, but the first one that was aimed against a ground target. All previous test-launches had solely proven the sea to sea attack capability.

United Press International comments:

As we have noted over the past two years, India continues to forge ahead with its ambitious program to become a major power with its own domestically produced
intercontinental ballistic missile and cruise missile capabilities. India is even pushing ahead with its own ballistic missile defense programs, without buying from the United States the quantity and quality of BMD technology that other democratic nations such as Japan, Taiwan and Israel have all embraced. […]

Having said that, the BrahMos offers a remarkable opportunity for India and the DRDO to break that pattern [of difficulties with the transition from prototype achievements to the steady, reliable production,] because it involves such close association with Russian heavy industry in a field where only the United States can contest Russia globally -- the production of many types of reliable military missiles.

News from the New Europe

The recent days brought some development in the missile defense issue, but certainly nothing that could justifiably be touted as progress.

Jane’s reports:

While US-Polish talks on the details and timing of the ballistic missile site itself are progressing, according to the sources the negotiating parties are in opposition over two other subjects arising from, but not directly linked, to the missile site. These are bilateral US-Polish defence co-operation and the stationing of US troops in Poland via a specific status-of-forces agreement (SOFA).

Not directly linked??? The critical comments made recently by a senior aide to Prime Minister Donald Tusk were quite clear: "the talks with our American friends are aimed at reaching a ... form of agreement that is mutually advantageous".

Last week a U.S. military delegation visited Warsaw to discuss the non-linked issues. Stephen Mull, acting U.S. assistant secretary of state for political and military affairs, said the two countries "agreed to focus in particular on Poland's air defense, command and control and mobility needs." Poland is pushing for Patriot 3 or THAAD missiles, and has identified 17 areas of its military that the U.S. could help modernize.

The Polish wish-list will certainly be on the agenda during the visit of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Washington during March 8-10.

The news coming from the negotiations with the Polish southern neighbor are also not suited to make MDA cheer.

After a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush last Wednesday, the visiting Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said the failure was due to environmental reasons. "We want the strictest possible standards to be applied in terms of ensuring and guaranteeing environmental protection," Topolanek told media.

Notwithstanding of these differences, U.S. President George W. Bush and Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek shared the view that they were close to agreeing on a deal. We have heard something similar before, deals that were clinched “in principle”. Czech and U.S. negotiators will resume talks this week in Prague about the radar base. So we will see if the Czechs learned from Warsaw and if the environmental concerns will procrastinate the negotiations further.

India successfully tests its first SLBM

India launched on February 26 a nuclear-capable SLBM off of its southeast coast near the port city of Visakhapatnam, which is home to the navy's Eastern Fleet. The test of the indigenously-developed SLBM with the designation Sagarika (K-15) was announced earlier this month. The nuclear-capable missile has a range of 700km and can carry a 500kg payload.

“This missile is a variant of the Dhanush and an advanced clone of Prithvi's naval version. The difference is that it can only be launched from a submarine,” a source at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) said.

The Sagarika is designed to be integrated with a nuclear-powered submarine that India is building and that is expected to be ready for sea trials by 2009. Since the Indian Navy does not have yet a submarine capable of firing an SLBM, the missile was launched from an underwater platform positioned 50 meters deep in the sea.

Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organization, the missile has at least twice been test-fired but without success as its trajectory deviated while in flight on both occasions. Other sources refer to six previous tests.

A defense ministry spokesperson said that “[t]he test was successful. We are waiting [for] further details.” Once the weapon is deployed, India would join the few other nations – namely United States, Russia, China, and France – capable of firing ballistic missiles from air, sea and land.

Soon after the test, Pakistan’s Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir warned that the test “is going to start a new arms race in the region”. So far Pakistan possesses in addition to its various land-based ballistic missiles the Babur cruise missile that can be fired from warships, submarines and fighter jets and the Ra'ad ALCM which was tested on August 25, 2007.

Cross-blogging: Iranian Missile Silos

On Wednesday Sean O'Connor put up another great post on his IMINT blog. This one is on the Iranian Missile Silos: Iran is the first country that has chosen to operationally deploy (offensive) ballistic missiles inside of silos. Make sure to read Sean's analysis.

Another u-turn

Earlier this month Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski announced that his country and the United States clinched a deal “in principle” to install a missile defense system on Polish territory. Now it seems that this statement was made in a very optimistic manner – or that someone is not adhering to his principles. The Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza reported that Polish officials cancelled a meeting that was scheduled to take place on Friday:

U.S. officials had hoped to reach an agreement before Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visits Washington early next month, but that opportunity will be missed, reported Gazeta Wyborcza.

“We will not accept a situation in which the Americans treat us from a business standpoint and we give them treatment based on ideology,” Tusk said (Poland Business Newswire I, Feb. 22).

“I am not convinced that the United States is approaching these negotiations with the energy it declares,” added Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski (Poland Business Newswire II, Feb. 21).

Slawomir Nowak, a senior aide to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, told the private broadcaster Radio Zet that "the talks with our American friends are aimed at reaching a ... form of agreement that is mutually advantageous. The negotiations are going ahead as normal and I wouldn't panic". He stressed the importance of a visit of a US military delegation in Warsaw next week.

The Polish announcement came to a surprise for the U.S. side. John Rood, the US secretary of state for arms control and international security, was quoted recently: "I don't think there are major issues that are outstanding that are not surmountable. [...] I am very optimistic about our ability to successfully conclude these agreements."