India announced that it will take another step towards developing a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in the next few days. India conducted in November 2006 one exo-atmospheric interceptor test and in December 2007 an endo-atmospheric test. Both were successful. This time it is again an exo-atmospheric test in which India tries to intercept an MRBM in the 2,000 km range at an altitude of around 80-km. A combined endo-exo-atmospheric test is scheduled for September / October.
The Times of India quoted DRDO chief controller for missiles, V K Saraswat, who mentioned that the first component of the BMD system should be ready for deployment by 2011 or so, after several tests against a variety of missiles to ensure "a kill probability of 99.8%". Air Marshal AK Trikha comments these expectations n his read-worthy article “India’s Quest for Anti-Ballistic Missile Defence” in the Indian Defence Review:
However as seen so often before, DRDO community can not be faulted for suffering from any exaggerated sense of modesty.
If the turtles have finished their nesting and breeding by now, there should be no delays so we can see soon whether DRDO adjusts its deployment prediction or if he just “forgets” that he ever had such ambitious aims.
The Hindustan Times reports that India is on the verge of acquiring a strategic capability to strike land targets thousands of miles from its shores by inducting the Russian underwater launched Klub-S subsonic cruise missiles. These missiles will come as a goody together with the delivery of the Sindhuvijay, an Indian Navy Kilo-class submarine that was overhauled at the Russian Zvezdochka shipyard at the White Sea. The Klub-S is a high-precision missile that can be launched from standard torpedo tubes from a depth of 35 to 40 meters with a range of – according to the Hindustan Times - 275 sm.
The article continues by informing that the Klub-S is not the only new missile that India will get together with the upgraded Kilo-class, known as the Sindhughosh Class in Indian service:
Besides the land attack version, the subs are also coming armed with 3M-54EI anti-ship cruise missiles.
This is all in a tumble; let’s make some sense out of this: the Klub is an anti-sub and anti-ship cruise missile system (ASCM) that is sometimes referred to as the Club, Biryuza, Alpha and Alfa. Two modifications exist: Klub-S for submarines and Klub-N for surface vessels.
Five types of missiles - 3M-54E, 3M-54E1, 3M-14E, 91RE1 and 91RE2 - have been developed for the Club ASCM. The Club-S can be armed with a 3M-54E or 3M-54E1 anti-ship missile, 3M-14E submarine-to-coast missile or a 91RE1 anti-submarine torpedo. The Club-N can be armed with a 3M-54E or 3M-54E1 anti-ship missile, 3M-14E submarine-to-coast missile or a 91RE2 anti-submarine torpedo.
The missiles come with the Kilo-class submarine, so we have the S-version of the Klub family. The range of allegedly 275sm can be corrected to 275kn. There is no Klub-missile with a range of 275sm and the export of such a missile would furthermore put Russia into breach of its MTCR obligations, because 275sm are more than 500km. Because the Hindustan Times brags about the “capability to strike land targets thousands of miles from its shores” we can assume that this missile is the 3M14-E LACM, the family’s land-attack version.
The second missile that was wrongly labeled “3M-54EI” by the Hindustan Times is the 3M-54E1 version of the Klub-S ASCM. This missile is the Russian equivalent of the Tomahawk and is almost identical in shape to the 3M14E. Because the missile is subsonic it must be the 3M-54E1, without the addition 1 it would be the supersonic version, which can only carry a 200kg warhead instead of the 400kg that can be delivered by the 3M-54E1 and the 3M-14E.
Those of you who want more details can have a look at “The Klub Missile Family” by the Defense Threat Information Group.
Ok, the missile riddle is solved. However, there is another piece of information in the screwed up Hindustan Times article that still makes me wonder:
Naval sources said Sindhuvijay will start sailing from the Russian shipyard located close to the White sea on August 5 and dock at Western Naval Command base in Mumbai a week later.
One week for more than 15.000km? This is not bad. According to the conventional wisdom the Kilo-class submarines have a speed of 25 knots = 46km/h. This sums up to 7728 km in a week of full speed ahead. So it seems that the Indian navy preferred to have supersonic submarines over having supersonic Klub missiles.
... than never. Back last month, on June 17, the United States Navy conducted a flight test of its Tomahawk Block IV Missile. Somehow I missed it. You can read about the test over at the Space War site (it also took them over a month to report about this test, so I am not the only slacker).
Almost 22 years after it was first conceived, the Nag anti-tank guided missile will have its "final developmental flight trials" at Pokhran on July 27-28. Over 60 developmental trials of the Nag have been conducted over the years but recurring problems in the guidance systems, especially in the "imaging infra-red (IIR) sensor-based seeker", has meant the missile is still to become fully operational. For that reason the upcoming tests are anticipated with expectations. Seven missiles will be fired against static and moving targets. These tests will be followed by the "user-trials" in mid-September. The third-generation Nag missile will have a four-km strike range.
The United States successfully tracked a simulated enemy ballistic missile on last Friday, July 18, and relayed its course to a Ground-based Midcourse Defense firing system in Colorado. According to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, the tracking of the long-range target, which incorporated evasive signaling, was the most rigorous test so far of U.S. missile defense control systems. The test “successfully demonstrated the integration of [Raytheon-build] missile defense sensors required to support an interceptor engagement," said Pete Franklin, vice president of Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems National & Theater Security Programs.
As you might remember, the United States and Poland already reached an agreement in principle and a tentative deal. Both were so incredibly long-lasting that the parties are still making progress in their negotiations: according to the Warsaw Business Journal the parties are – once again – closer in their efforts in negotiating a deal to place anti-missile defense on Polish soil after a Monday meeting. I am really eager to see how the next breakthrough will be praised.
Just a side note, as reported on The Moscow Times: “Meanwhile, in a coincidence that defies all odds, the Russian supply of oil to the Czech Republic experienced mysterious technical problems.”
There are also some developments in the missile defense field on a smaller scale: Japan scheduled its first PAC-3 test for the week of September 15 at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. So far Japan possesses four PAC-3 systems which have been installed around Tokyo. Additional Japanese bases are expected to receive PAC-3 systems by March 2011.
The recent days have been quite busy here. This will not change before mid next week. Therefore I will provide you today only with a reading list instead of longer posts. Enjoy!
A few days after being snubbed by Poland, the United States and the Czech Republic signed a pact on Tuesday to build part of the U.S. missile defense shield southwest of Prague. While the treaty still awaits ratification by the parliament the position of the Czechs has not changed: 70 % of the Czech population are against building even “defensive” radar installations on their soil.
Iran has sent a Great Prophet into battle. In its military exercises dubbed Payambar-e Azam 3 (Great Prophet 3), the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps test-fired on Wednesday, July 9, several missiles, in between the Shahab-3. The missile was equipped with a one-ton conventional warhead.
The tests occurred at a time of increased tension between Iran and Israel over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. The Iranian government contributed to the stand-off by stressing that the Shahab-3 is capable of reaching Israel. The Shahab-3 has a range of 2,000 km and parts of western Iran are within 1,050 km of Tel Aviv. One expert said that the general range of the Shahab-3 is 1,300 km. It is possible to extend it to 2,000 km but only in combination with a warhead that is much lighter than one ton. This lead to the comment: "This is typical of Iran to exaggerate the accomplishments of the missiles and its nuclear program."
According to a report by the Iranian television there might have been two Shahabs lifting off within seconds of each other. Historically, there have always been single launches.
The Shahab was not the only missile that was launched on Tuesday. The Chinese news agency Xinhua reports:
Nine highly advanced missiles with improved accuracy were simultaneously tested, including the Zelzal and Fateh missiles with ranges of 400 km and 170 km respectively.
It seems that Iran tried to increase its deterrence potential by making use of state of the art technology: Photoshop! A misleading photo of four missiles being launched at once during the test, instead of the correct three, made its way to the front pages of several major newspapers. The four-missile image was obtained from the website of Sepah News, the media arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that Iran doctored the photo to cover up what apparently was a misfiring of one of the missiles. Today, on July 10, a second test launch was carried out during the night hours.
This second test raised some concerns. Wallace Witkowski wrote for the Market Watch:
A senior U.S. military official disputed reports that Iran carried out a second day of new missile tests on Thursday, according to CNN. The unnamed source told CNN the U.S. believes Iran fired seven short- to medium-range missiles on Wednesday, and that a missile that was fired the following day was one that had failed on launch on Wednesday.
This analysis does not provide any information about the deviation in the total number of launched missiles. Seven missiles yesterday and one latecomer today do not sum up to nine. Meanwhile rumors spread that there will be a third test. There has been no information to substantiate these rumors.
In addition to the demonstration of military might the maneuvers was – naturally – paired with verbal flexing of muscles. Iran blamed the United States’ and Israel’s warmongering behavior and the stressed that the aim of the war games was to demonstrate "just how strong-willed the Islamic Republic is in defending its sovereignty against any challenges”. The first test came one day after a senior Iranian official warned of an immediate retaliation should Israel or the US attack the country.
The New York Times wrote:
Some saw the tests as essentially deterrent in nature. A senior American intelligence official said the missile tests, together with belligerent comments by Iranian officials, seemed part of a strategy to warn Iran’s neighbors of its “capacity to inflict pain.”
According to this official Iran pursues a hedgehog strategy: mess with me and you’ll get stuck. The United States said on Wednesday Iran should immediately halt development of ballistic missiles and stop conducting tests if it wanted to gain the trust of the world. This would doubtlessly be a wonderful thing to achieve. But this call contains a major flaw: when will the United States learn that it is not possible to set the desired end-result as a precondition for negotiations? We have the same problem in the nuclear field where the ceasing of enrichment activities was made a precondition for talks. But it is the P5+1 who wants to talk to Iran not the other way round.
As long as we can see examples of Photoshop-skills of Iranian officials and strange weight-range combinations of Iranian missile marvels there is still time to calm down, stop the blame-game and start discussing.
Welcome to the Missile Monitor. This blog covers recent news, developments and analyses in the field of proliferation and technology of missiles as well as the latest news on missile defense systems.
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