India test fires improved Prithvi-II surface-to-surface missile

India test-fired yesterday a missile of the Prithvi family. The official statements refer to an improved version of the Prithvi-II. These statements raise various question because they do not tally with knowledge about the missile as it rests in the public domain. An article on the domain-b website highlights the inconsistencies. I will try to elaborate more on that early next week. Have a great weekend.

Some news on missile defense

The recent days saw no major developments, just some comments connected to the U.S. missile defense system.

The Prague Daily Monitor reports that Germany supports the stationing of a U.S. radar base in the Czech Republic and considers it important that the system, including anti-missiles in Poland, be part of NATO's missile defense architecture. German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung made such a comment after meeting his Czech counterpart last Thursday, May 15. A couple of days later, on May 20, Jung met his Polish counterpart in Warsaw and reiterated Germany’s position. Both ministers agreed that the setting up of such a missile defense system in the NATO-framework is “correct and necessary”.

Even though the European ministers mentioned the necessity of a missile defense system, news from the United States show that it is still a very long way to go: the NTI Global Newswire reports that U.S. Missile Defense Agency has pushed back a planned intercept test until fall so it can replace a malfunctioning part on a weapon designed to destroy incoming enemy missiles. The test was originally scheduled for April, delayed to July and now to October.

Naturally, also on the Russian side some comments were made on missile defense. Since May 7 Dmitry Medvedev is the (maybe not so) strong man in the Kremlin. In the meantime the Russian President inspected the big “toys” of the country’s Strategic Missile Forces, the Topol M and he "felt a drive" when he watched the missiles and other weapons rolling across the square. It seems that he enjoyed this feeling so much that he promised that such parades will continue and may even be expanded and – by far of significantly greater importance – he vowed to make sure that the weapons are adequately funded. In his first comments about missile defense Medvedev warned of "an adequate response" to U.S. missile defense plans in Europe but said Moscow was still ready to negotiate with Washington. In his statement he seemed a bit less hawkish than Vladimir Putin. This is not fully convincing to all. United Press International’s Martin Sieff wrote:

[These comments] confirm that, however more "liberal" Medvedev may sound compared with his predecessor Putin, when talking about concepts of the rule of law or the importance of modernizing Russia, he shares his predecessor's determination to upgrade the Strategic Missile Forces.

Cross-blogging: Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Area Discovered in Central China

Hans Kristensen, author of the FAS Strategic Security Blog, has an excellent piece on Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Area Discovered in Central China. It should be on your reading list for today.

Full spead ahead

India and Russia are in a leading position with their supersonic BrahMos. Now India’s DRDO has lab-tested the hypersonic version of this cruise missile, the BrahMos-2.

''We have achieved a speed of Mach 5.26 in our laboratory tests of the hypersonic version of the BrahMos. However, it will take some 15-20 tests under controlled conditions before the missile can be actually test-launched,'' BrahMos Aerospace chief executive officer, Dr A Sivathanu Pillai, said.

Monika Chansoria wrote an article for the yesterday’s issue of the Central Chronicle titled “Race for missile supremacy “. Her concluding paragraph reads:

For this reason, the [Shaheen-2] missile test by Pakistan is yet another trigger at altering the existing strategic equation in South Asia. On its part, India for decades has countenanced the Chinese-Pakistan nuclear and missile collaboration as one of the gravest challenges posed to its peace and security and the testing of Shaheen-II is the newest testament to the same. In all certainty, the near future is likely to witness counter reactions to this recent initiation by Pakistan, thereby plunging the subcontinent into yet another stage of a spiraling arms race.

It seems that the “near future” is indeed very, only a couple of days away.

The more visually oriented readers might want to watch the two following eight-minute clips on the supersonic BrahMos.

Missile Defense potpourri

Today I have a brief overview over various missile defense news around the globe:

A large majority of Czechs oppose the U.S. plans to place parts of its missile defense system in their country, figures ranging from low 50s to 70 percent. Yet a recent poll finds that 67 percent of Czechs would accept the planned U.S. radar base on Czech soil if it became integrated into the NATO defense system.

Moving a bit north: the United States seem to be weary of the lack of progress concerning the interceptor base in Poland and the tough conditions set by the Prime Minister Tusk’s government. The most important conditions is that the United States significantly contribute financially to upgrading the Polish armed forces, especially the air defense. This condition - which according to some estimates could cost at least $10 billion to meet because it would involve equipping Poland with Patriot air-defense missiles - has become the single-most contentious issue in the negotiations. A senior U.S. official said last Wednesday that Washington was prepared to seek a different location for part of its planned antiballistic missile shield if the Polish government could not agree on the terms. This statement was commented by the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski who said that the government will not interfere if the U.S. should do so. I wonder what Sikorski had in mind how exactly Poland could interfere. Would Warsaw set up an interceptor base of its own – after rejecting the U.S. base – just as a sign of defiance?

It seems that deals with other partners can be easier negotiated: Washington appears set to offer Israel a forward-based X-band radar that could greatly boost Israeli defenses against enemy ballistic missiles while tying them directly into a growing U.S. missile shield. The system has been described by U.S. officials as capable of tracking an object the size of a baseball from about 2,900 miles away.

It would let Israel's Arrow missile defenses engage a Shahab-3 ballistic missile about halfway through what would be its 11-minute flight to Israel from Iran, or six times sooner than Israel's "Green Pine" radar is currently capable of doing.

The Strategypage elaborates further on the radar’s benefits writing that instead of being able to hit a missile warhead that is only about two minutes from hitting a target in Israel, the X-band radar would allow an incoming missile to be spotted and destroyed farther away and with greater certainty.

While the deployment of the radar would certainly significantly increase Israel’s defense capabilities, one thing is rather farfetched. Congressman Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican, said that:

This is the best thing to lower tensions between Israel and Iran" because Iran presumably would be less likely to attack under such circumstances.

Aftermath of the Agni-III test

On February 26 India tested its nuclear-capable Sagarika missile. As you might remember, the SLBM had to be fired from a submerged pontoon because currently India does not possess a submarine that is capable of launching these missiles. On Monday, more than two months after the test, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) said it had successfully acquired the technology to launch missiles from the ocean depths, becoming the world's fifth country to do so. It is not clear why this announcement was made now. Certainly shyness or humbleness are not the reasons. Directly after test, a Defense Ministry’s spokesperson had already confirmed the success. However, according to DRDO the performance of the missile system was "far higher" than the requirement specified by the navy. "It has already been accepted by the user and is presently under [production] for induction into the services.”

Buoyed by this success New Delhi pursues a very ambitious missile program. V.K. Saraswat, Chief Controller (R&D) of the DRDO was quoted recently confirming that “India will test indigenously built Agni [V] ballistic missile with a strike range of more than 5000 km in 2009.” Other sources refer to Avinash Chander, Project Director of Agni-III, who allegedly said that scientists were awaiting the government nod for carrying out the first test flight of a missile with 5000 km ranges which could be anytime by this year-end. The missile is expected to contain a third stage booster rocket powered by solid fuel propellant.

Once again the nomenclature: it seems India will leapfrog from the Agni-III to the Agni-V, which will be the 5,000+ km version. That means that Agni-III+ and Agni-IV were rather “working titles”. Unless I find any convincing sources that will indicate otherwise, I will from now on use this terminology and change the names accordingly to Agni-V.

Agni-I (SRBM)	700-800km	single stage
Agni-II (MRBM)	2,500km	two stages
Agni-III (IRBM)	3,500km	two stages
Agni-III SL (SLBM)	5,200-11,600km	three stages
Agni-V (IRBM/ICBM)	beyond 5,000km	three stages

India is not only working on the Agni family. The Hindu reported last Friday that DRDO is developing a hypersonic missile that could double up as a long-range cruise missile titled HSTDV (hypersonic technology demonstrator vehicle). The newspaper quotes Dr. Saraswat:

“The HSTDV project, through which we want to demonstrate the performance of a scram-jet engine at an altitude of 15 km to 20 km, is on. Under this project, we are developing a hypersonic vehicle that will be powered by a scram-jet engine. This is dual-use technology, which when developed, will have multiple civilian applications. It can be used for launching satellites at low cost. It will also be available for long-range cruise missiles of the future.”

Another project also picks up steam: Avinash Chander said that the Astra, India’s first beyond-visual range air-to-air missile, which could engage and destroy maneuvering aerial targets, was now under development.

Picture: Avinash Chander (centre), with his colleagues, displays a model of Agni-V ©The Hindu

Agni-III follow-up

Here are some excerpts from the press coverage of Wednesday’s Agni-III test:

• The Agni-III ballistic missile system may be inducted into the Army by next year. (The Hindu)
• The circular error probable was in single digit, indicating the high accuracy of the system. (The Hindu)
• M. Natarajan, Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister, said “We may have one more flight.” (The Hindu)
• The complex missile would require another four-five tests, series production and user trials before it can become operational. (The Times of India)
• Dr Avinash Chander, Programme Director of Agni said that the developmental flights of Agni-III are complete and the system is ready for induction (The Hindu Business Line)
• "The armed forces will be able to deploy Agni-III only by 2010-2011. The training trials of the 700-km Agni-I and 2,500-km Agni-II, for instance, are still in progress to ensure the forces can fire them on their own," said a top official. (The Times of India)
• Indian Air Marshal TS Asthana declared that the Indian armed forces still regard fighter aircraft as the only reliable delivery system for nuclear weapons. (IBNLive)
• India inched closer towards building a "minimum credible nuclear deterrent. (The Times of India)

This and that

After tit for tat it is now time for: this and that. Some short notes on other missile issues.

Norway test fired last week its fourth generation Naval Strike Missile (NSM). According to the website of the producing Kongsberg Corporation, the cruise missile was fully operational in 2007. However, the test turned out to be a complete failure: the missile did not lift off after the launch signal was given. This was a major set-back especially if one considers that the cruise missile was successfully tested in early 2007 and an agreement for serial production was signed on July 3, 2007.

Last Wednesday (April 30), the U.S. Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs held a hearing entitled, “Questions for the Missile Defense Agency: Oversight of Missile Defense (Part 3)”. Make sure to read Jeff Lindemyer’s summary.

Japan has agreed on Tuesday to help the United States develop a multiple warhead version of the SM-3 anti-ballistic missile system. Tokyo made this decision with a look at China, which is developing multiple warheads for its ICBMs.

once more: tit for tat

India’s Agni-III test was a move to somewhat bridge the stark strategic imbalance with China in terms of nuclear and missile arsenals. However, Pakistan felt compelled to step out of the shadow and remind its eastern neighbor that it is also credible threat: it tested today its nuclear-capable Ra’ad (Hatf VIII) air-launched cruise missile. The launch of the ALCM, which has a range of 350 kilometers, was carried out at an undisclosed location, a Pakistani military said.

In the official statement no connection was made to India’s test on the day before: "The missile test is part of a continuing process of validating the design parameters of the weapon system." Usually India and Pakistan notify each other about upcoming test launches. It would be interesting to know if and -in the affirmative case - when India was notified about this alleged business-as-usual test.

Picture: © AFP